Analysis of gold news: In the U.S. market on Wednesday (January 10), the price of gold was trading around 2,029 U.S. dollars per ounce. Although U.S. bond yields fell, gold prices remained range-bound due to the strengthening of the U.S. dollar*. Gold dynamics were affected by U.S. economic data showing improving small business confidence and a narrowing trade deficit. According to the latest data from CME’s “Fed Watch”, the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in the range of 5.25%-5.50% in February is 95.3%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 4.7%. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged by March is 34.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point interest rate cut is 62.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point interest rate cut is 3.0%. Meanwhile, gold price action is expected to remain capped as traders await U.S. inflation data for December. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to rise 3.3% year over year, with core expected to rise 3.8% year over year, down from the previous reading. Some analysts believe that gold prices will weaken in the short term. Judging from the latest data, more jobs were created in December than expected. However, data for previous months were revised downwards. Still, there is no evidence of significant weakness in the U.S. labor market. Instead, the data may encourage those who continue to expect a soft landing for the U.S. economy, leading to a later rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which explains why gold prices are lower now. While we’re far less optimistic, economists still believe the U.S. will remain in recession, but a strong labor market supports our view that the Fed may not cut interest rates for the first time until May, rather than earlier. Many market participants expect. Against this backdrop, modest weakness in gold prices in the short term is reasonable. Investors are currently awaiting U.S. CPI data for further direction in gold prices.
Today’s gold strategy: It is recommended to focus on low and long callbacks, supplemented by rebounds from high altitudes. At the top, focus on the 2045 first-line resistance, and on the bottom, focus on the 2015 first-line support.
Analysis of crude oil news: In the US market on Wednesday (January 10), crude oil prices were trading around US$73.1 per barrel. Oil prices rebounded from lows on Tuesday, and market sentiment improved, jumping back to gains from the previous day’s decline list. List, the oil price tug-of-war starting in 2024 has made the market a little confused. Under the back and forth of 4%, the situation was good for a while, and the situation was precarious for a while, but looking back, the oil price was just in a sideways see-saw consolidation. The influencing factors of long and short interweaving have led to unstable market sentiment, and oil prices have also swayed with market opinions. Obviously, it is difficult for investors to make unilateral bets in this process, and time will give the answer. Weekly data released by API in the early morning showed that crude oil inventories fell by 5.21 million barrels more than expected. Although it is a seasonal inventory change, the continuous decline in crude oil inventories in the past period has alleviated the downward pressure on oil prices. The Saudi cabinet once again stood up to emphasize Saudi support for efforts to stabilize the oil market and praised OPEC and other countries for their commitment to solidarity and market stability through the Declaration of Cooperation. Obviously everyone realizes that whether OPEC can successfully protect the market in the first quarter is a very critical test for the entire organization, and there is no way out except working together. In this case, it will be very important to guide investors’ expectations. Saudi Arabia’s voice has also allowed the oil market to recover from the crisis again and stabilized the situation. For the time being, oil prices remain in a low range and are gaining momentum. Relatively speaking, bulls are still more active at the current moment, but the key is to face an upper resistance range. Breaking through the upper resistance requires a factor that can make investors more optimistic. . Participate with caution and pay attention to the rhythm.
Today’s crude oil strategy: It is recommended to focus on rebounding high, supplemented by callbacks low and long. Focus on the first-line resistance of 73.1 at the top and the first-line support of 70.1 at the bottom.
Caution is required in operation and suggestions are provided only for reference.
