Analysis of gold news: In the U.S. market on Thursday (January 11), the price of gold was trading around 2,027 U.S. dollars per ounce, and U.S. consumer inflation data will be released on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters believe that year-on-year price growth in December will be 3.2%, but they believe that core inflation may fall to 3.8%, which will be the lowest level since mid-2021. A report from the New York Fed showed consumers expect inflation to fall. And Fed Governor Bowman said on Monday that the Fed’s monetary policy appears to be “restrictive enough.” So colder-than-expected inflation data will give the Fed more reason to cut interest rates this year, which should push gold prices higher. However, we have to note that since the new year, the style of painting seems to have changed. Strong job growth and mortgage rates remaining high on good home sales are signs that U.S. inflation remains sticky, giving the Federal Reserve more room to keep interest rates higher for longer. Traders also appeared to be steadily scaling back bets that the Federal Reserve could begin cutting interest rates as early as March 2024. Moreover, Fed officials are still opposed to cutting interest rates early. Atlanta Fed President Bostic said that he still prefers monetary policy to remain tight in the short term. Although the Fed has hinted that it will eventually cut interest rates in 2024, it has not provided information on the timing of the rate cuts. The central bank has so far maintained a largely data-driven approach to rate cuts. Therefore, the prolonged period of high interest rates will have a major impact on gold in a phased manner.
Today’s gold strategy: It is recommended to focus on low and long callbacks, supplemented by rebounds from high altitudes. At the top, focus on the 2048 first-line resistance, and on the bottom, focus on the 2020 first-line support.
Analysis of crude oil news: Crude oil prices were trading around $72.90 per barrel in the U.S. market on Thursday (January 11), as an unexpected increase in U.S. crude oil inventories triggered concerns about demand in the largest oil market, weakening prices and increasing demand. Moderation will lead to low oil prices in the short term, unless there are major supply disruptions like the situation in the Red Sea. U.S. oil production will continue to grow, albeit at a slower pace, while OPEC faces difficulty influencing oil prices as output from other countries increases. Recent Saudi price cuts and a focus on U.S. output and demand from Asian countries underscore the challenging oil market environment and uncertain outlook for 2024. All in all, most analysts expect this year to be what the media calls a weak year for oil prices, without much stimulus. However, potential weakness in oil prices is expected in early January. Analysts say traders appear to be largely dismissing the Israeli-Palestinian war as irrelevant to oil prices, but there is always the risk of an escalation that could involve big oil producers, especially Iran. This will undoubtedly affect oil prices. As for demand and its weakness this year, all eyes are on Asian countries. The world’s biggest driver of oil demand set one record after another last year, but traders were disappointed by poor demand growth. This year, expectations are likely to moderate as analysts predict weaker demand. But if oil prices stay low, Asian countries will buy more, if only to fill their own storage tanks. This has happened before and will happen again if the conditions are right. Of course, there is always the possibility of something unexpected happening that could push oil prices higher, but for the time being that possibility is quite remote.
Today’s crude oil strategy: It is recommended to focus on rebounding from high altitudes, supplemented by low and long corrections. Focus on the first-line resistance of 75.2 at the top and the first-line support of 72.4 at the bottom.
Caution is required in operation and suggestions are provided for reference.
