Analysis of gold news: In the U.S. market on Monday (January 15), the price of gold was trading around 2,053 US dollars per ounce. At present, the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East has stimulated safe-haven buying, while the continuous decline in the U.S. producer price index has prompted the Federal Reserve. Betting on possible early interest rate cuts has increased, spurring a sharp rebound in gold. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said last Friday that the final demand producer price index (PPI) fell 0.1% month-on-month in December. November data was revised to a decrease of 0.1%, compared with the previous value of unchanged. PPI has fallen for three consecutive months. The fall in producer goods prices shows that although consumer goods prices rebounded in December after falling for two consecutive months, the momentum of commodity deflation has not changed. That has prompted traders to increase bets on rate cuts in the coming months. The federal funds rate futures market currently prices a 79% chance of a rate cut in March, up from Thursday’s estimate of 73%, according to CME’s FedWatch tool. For this reason, the yield on short-term U.S. government bonds has declined, and gold has also taken the opportunity to rebound. In addition, the escalation of geopolitical conflicts between countries has also given gold additional reasons to buy as a safe haven. The United States and Britain launched air strikes against targets in Yemen, targeting radar facilities, storage sites and missile launchers, after the Houthis attacked ships in the Red Sea and disrupted global shipping for weeks. On Thursday, Yemen’s Houthi leader Abdul Malik Houthi warned that any US attack against the Houthis will be responded to by the Houthis, and that the Houthi counterattacks will be even greater in the future. violent. Tensions in the Red Sea may not only not stop but also intensify after the US and UK struck Houthi targets. Gold may therefore continue to demonstrate its safe-haven appeal.
Today’s gold strategy: It is recommended to focus on low and long callbacks, supplemented by rebounds from high altitudes. Focus on the 2067 first-line resistance at the top and the 2037 first-line support at the bottom.
Analysis of crude oil news: In the U.S. market on Monday (January 15), crude oil prices were trading around US$72.10 per barrel. Oil prices did not hold on to gains after rising last Friday, which means that at this stage, investors are not optimistic about the future of oil prices. The expectations did not form a unanimous view, and both the bulls and the bears took their own sides, which directly led to a continuous tug-of-war in oil prices after the New Year. On the one hand, it still takes time to verify the effect of OPEC’s production cuts in the first quarter. OPEC’s core production reduction countries have all issued positive remarks in an attempt to boost market confidence. In the EIA’s short-term energy outlook, it is judged that OPEC’s production cuts will lead to an average decrease in global oil inventories of 80% in the first quarter of 2024. million barrels per day. Although from a rational perspective, it is judged from the statements of the core OPEC production reduction countries that they will comply with voluntary production cuts to protect oil prices, investors have expectations for this, but they are cautious when placing bets and lack confidence; and recent geopolitical factors There are signs of warming that have injected a premium into oil prices and improved market sentiment to a certain extent. However, overall, the current situation in the crude oil market still allows investors to exercise restraint and remain cautious about pursuing gains. After U.S. crude oil hit $75.2, The lack of willingness to chase the rise made it difficult for oil prices to maintain their gains, and oil prices eventually returned to a long-short stalemate. Judging from the overall oil market situation, various factors such as geopolitical factors and expectations of European and American interest rate policies at the macro level will continue to affect oil prices at the current stage. Investors’ views may swing at any time. The trend of oil prices is poor. Pay attention to the rhythm and control. risk.
Today’s crude oil strategy: It is recommended to focus on rebounding from high altitudes, supplemented by low and long corrections. Focus on the first-line resistance of 73.7 at the top and the first-line support of 70.8 at the bottom.
Caution is required in operation and suggestions are provided for reference.
