Analysis of gold news: In the US market on Monday (January 22), the spot gold price was trading around 2020 US dollars per ounce. Recent statements from Federal Reserve officials indicate that more inflation data is needed before considering an interest rate cut. The rate cut is expected to start from the first Season three begins. This follows positive U.S. consumer sentiment and strong labor market and retail sales data, indicating economic stability. Therefore, the possibility of a rate cut in March has dropped significantly. The U.S. dollar index fell slightly, and the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield also fell from recent highs. The upcoming US PMI preview report and GDP estimates may further influence these trends, and rising PCE inflation may strengthen the dollar and limit the upside potential of gold prices. The market is also paying close attention to the decisions of Japan and the European Central Bank. The Japanese yen saw significant moves in quiet trading ahead of the Bank of Japan meeting and a raft of currency options expirations. The dollar’s performance remains tentative, reflecting market uncertainty about the Fed’s rate cut schedule. In the short term, the outlook for gold prices is bearish, mainly driven by changes in the pattern of expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. A recent shift in market sentiment has been driven by strong U.S. economic indicators, suggesting that expected interest rate cuts may be delayed until the third quarter. Comments from Atlanta Fed President Bostic and the reduced likelihood of a rate cut in March highlighted this delay, undermining gold’s immediate appeal as a hedge against falling interest rates. In addition, a slight decline in U.S. Treasury yields, while signaling some caution, did not offset broader expectations for a stronger dollar amid delayed interest rate cuts. Therefore, these factors collectively suggest that gold’s near-term upside potential is limited.
Today’s gold strategy: It is recommended to focus on low and long callbacks, supplemented by rebounds from high altitudes. At the top, focus on the 2035 first-line resistance, and on the bottom, focus on the 2006 first-line support.
Analysis of crude oil news: On Monday (January 22), crude oil prices were trading around US$73.60 per barrel in the U.S. market. Last Friday, oil prices surged higher and fell amidst repeated shocks, but finally closed slightly lower. This is a long-short stalemate. typical characteristics. In the three weeks after the New Year, the complex fluctuations of oil prices in a narrow range made investors confused. The Houthis in the Red Sea disrupted the shipping market and the geopolitical risks focusing on Iran in the Middle East injected geopolitical premiums into the market. This is in line with the Investors have formed a game over supply and demand that may be lower than expected, which has become the reason for the repeated seesawing and chaotic rhythm of oil prices in the past few weeks. The low level of investor confidence makes it difficult to sustain the unilateral drive of oil prices. In the past week, crude oil has closed a long shadow almost every day, showing that market views are swinging. Oil prices are trapped in the market, and can only fluctuate repeatedly below the resistance area*. Although there are challenges for oil prices to break through the upper resistance, OPEC’s production cuts are expected to improve the supply and demand situation in the crude oil market, which limits the downside risk of oil prices breaking through. Therefore, oil prices continued to fluctuate at the beginning of the year. From the demand side, terminal consumption remained stable. Refinery operating rates in China and the United States have been recovering slowly, and the growth in demand and replenishment has led to a general increase in the crack spread of refined oil products, especially the sharp rebound in the crack spread of gasoline on a weekly basis. Tianfa believes that this trend may continue. This is a manifestation of sustained demand. Looking forward to the market outlook, we have seen that most oil inventories have declined in the past week. The International Energy Agency predicts that the world will still deplete slightly in the first quarter of 2024. This is an estimate that is closer to reality; the possibility of geopolitical tensions continuing to ferment, refinery gross profits The rebound will also promote a rebound in refinery operations. Tianfa believes that crude oil prices will have limited room for adjustment in the later period and will still be dominated by strong shocks.
Today’s crude oil strategy: It is recommended to focus on rebounding from high altitudes, supplemented by callbacks to lows. Focus on the first-line resistance of 73.1 at the top and the first-line support of 76.0 at the bottom.
Caution is required in operation and suggestions are provided for reference.
