Analysis of gold news: In the US market on Tuesday (January 23), spot gold suddenly accelerated its short-term rebound, and the price of gold was approaching the US$2023/ounce mark. Gold prices fell on Monday as investors lowered expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March, while a climb in U.S. stocks further curbed interest in the safe-haven metal. Spot gold closed down $7.92 on Monday at $2,021.66 per ounce, with gold prices hitting an intraday low of $2,016.48 per ounce. Investors are awaiting the preliminary U.S. PMI report to be released on Wednesday for more clues on interest rates. In addition, preliminary fourth-quarter GDP will be released on Thursday and personal consumption expenditure data will be released on Friday. Gold prices fell on Monday as traders played down expectations for a quick interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve, while investment enthusiasm for the metal continued to wane ahead of key U.S. economic data this week. We’ve seen some pretty good U.S. economic data recently, suggesting the Federal Reserve may have to delay cutting interest rates. Gold prices fell about 1% last week, their biggest weekly drop in six weeks, mainly due to strong U.S. economic data and continued hawkish speeches by Federal Reserve officials downplaying expectations for a March interest rate cut. The Fed said it needs to see more inflation data before making a judgment on rate cuts, and its baseline scenario is to cut interest rates in the third quarter. According to the latest data from the CME Group’s Federal Watch Tool, traders see a chance of a rate cut by the Fed in March of about 41.6%, up from more than 70% expected at the beginning of last week. Investors are now awaiting preliminary U.S. Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data due on Wednesday, preliminary fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data on Thursday and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index on Friday. data for more clues on interest rates. In short, the current strength of the U.S. economy and the possible resurgence of the inflation outlook will likely prompt the Federal Reserve to maintain restrictive monetary policies for a period of time, making investors somewhat cautious about the trend of the gold market.
Today’s gold strategy: It is recommended to focus on low and long callbacks, supplemented by rebounds from high altitudes. At the top, focus on the 2041 first-line resistance, and on the bottom, focus on the 2013 first-line support.
Analysis of crude oil news: In the US market on Tuesday (January 23), crude oil prices were trading around US$73.90 per barrel. As extreme cold weather continued to hinder US crude oil production, the Ukrainian military attacked the Russian Novatek company. Oil prices rose about 2% on concerns about global energy supplies. The latest forecasts for demand growth in 2024 by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the International Energy Agency and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries range from 1.24 million to 2.25 million barrels per day, but all three organizations expect demand growth to slow down in 2025. So far, oversupply has been particularly pronounced at several German refineries, and domestic demand for the new year, including for heating oil, has remained slow despite falling temperatures. This is mainly because end users are able to rely on inventory, after they stocked up heavily in December. Levels in private and industrial storage tanks were higher in January than a year earlier. Faced with ample domestic supplies and slowing demand, importers are hesitant to bring more oil to Germany. Imports are falling at both the Rhine and northern ports as relatively low inland prices squeeze importers’ profits. Shipowners say this is also reflected in weaker demand for spot space in Germany. Demand for shipping products across the Rhine into Germany has dropped sharply this month, pushing freight rates down. The market is expected to further loosen policy to support the economy. This could mean demand for oil could weaken in the coming months. In addition, investors can focus on important central bank meetings and economic data this week to seek new impetus. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will announce a policy decision on Tuesday and the European Central Bank (ECB) will meet on Thursday. In addition, the release of global PMI flash reports in January and US fourth-quarter GDP data will be watched for clues about fuel demand. These meeting data will bring some volatility to oil prices.
Today’s crude oil strategy: It is recommended to focus on rebounding from high altitudes, supplemented by low and long corrections. Focus on the first-line resistance of 73.0 at the top and the first-line support of 75.8 at the bottom.
Caution is required in operation and suggestions are provided for reference.
