Analysis of gold news: In the Asian market on Thursday (January 25), the spot gold price was trading around 2015 US dollars per ounce, and gold as a whole still maintained a narrow range of fluctuations. Investors are nervously awaiting the release of a slew of U.S. economic data this week for more clues on the timetable for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. There is a lot of uncertainty about what will happen to the U.S. economy. The focus this week will be Thursday’s preliminary fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) and Friday’s personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index. Weak U.S. data could convince the Federal Reserve to lean dovish and limit gold’s downside. Federal Reserve policymakers said last week that they need to see more inflation data before making a judgment on interest rate cuts. The baseline scenario is to start cutting interest rates in the third quarter. Most economists polled by Reuters believe that the Fed will wait until the second quarter to cut interest rates. A rate cut in June is more likely than in May, and the expected magnitude of interest rate cuts this year is smaller than the market currently expects. Former Fed official Bullard said Tianfa expects the Fed to start cutting interest rates before inflation reaches 2%. In short, if the probability of interest rate cuts in March continues to decline, then gold will definitely still be under pressure and will be difficult to rise. On the contrary, if the picture of interest rate cuts gradually becomes clear, it will likely stimulate gold bulls to continue to work hard to push up gold prices.
Today’s gold strategy: It is recommended to focus on low and long callbacks, supplemented by rebounds from high altitudes. At the top, focus on the 2001 first-line resistance, and on the bottom, focus on the 2030 first-line support.
Analysis of crude oil news: Crude oil prices were trading around US$75.40 per barrel in the Asian market on Thursday (January 25). Oil prices continued to fluctuate sharply during the session on Tuesday, and finally closed down slightly. API data in the early morning showed that the sharp destocking of crude oil exceeded expectations. However, the accumulation of refined oil products, especially gasoline, exceeded expectations, which offset part of the positive effect of the reduction in crude oil storage. Oil prices still continue to rise slowly in the center of shock, but in the face of upward resistance, funds are still very cautious and tentative to increase, which also makes it difficult for oil prices to have a sustained strong performance. The news that Libyan oil fields have returned to normal production levels on Tuesday temporarily limited the performance of oil prices. However, oil production in North Dakota in the United States is expected to drop by 250,000 to 300,000 barrels per day due to cold weather, which pushed oil prices to recover their losses in overnight trading. In the end, funds continued to chase the increase. However, oil prices continued to fluctuate sharply throughout the day. Tianfa believes that the positive factors supporting oil prices at the supply and demand level of the crude oil market have the upper hand. On the supply side, against the backdrop of OPEC’s production cuts, geopolitical factors have not caused disturbances to the market. On the demand side, domestic crude oil processing has continued to increase over the past month, especially after local refineries obtained quotas for the new year. Obviously, the increase in the supply of refined oil products has limited the performance of domestic gasoline and diesel prices, but demand for crude oil imports has also started to support crude oil prices. The oil price situation is gradually recovering, but it has not changed the rhythm of repeated seesaws. To break the current stalemate, the crude oil market needs more powerful factors to stimulate investors to increase their enthusiasm for chasing prices. Brent broke through and stabilized at $80 Only then can the market mentality and expectations be improved, otherwise the oil price shock cycle may be extended in the face of strong resistance areas. This requires investors to remain patient enough and pay attention to the rhythm.
Today’s crude oil strategy sharing: It is recommended to focus on rebounding from high altitudes, supplemented by callbacks to lows. Focus on the first-line resistance of 73.7 at the top and the first-line support of 76.5 at the bottom.
Caution is required in operation and suggestions are provided for reference.
