Analysis of gold news: In the US market on Thursday (January 25), spot gold prices were trading around 2,022 US dollars per ounce. As the US economy remained strong, resistance from the US economy and central bank officials caused some investors to reconsider their Bets on how quickly the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year. This also directly affects the attractiveness of gold. Investors are currently awaiting Thursday’s preliminary U.S. Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) report, fourth-quarter GDP estimates and Friday’s personal consumption expenditures (PCE) report, in which investors hope to find more clues about the Fed’s interest rate cuts. Traders expect U.S. interest rates to be cut five times in 2024, by 25 basis points each time. Two weeks ago expectations were for six rate cuts. According to the London Stock Exchange Group’s (LSEG) interest rate probability application IRPR, the expected time for the Fed’s first interest rate cut has been postponed to May from the previous March, and the probability of a rate cut by then is 89%. Therefore, as analyzed before, if strong data pushes down expectations of an early interest rate cut, gold will be under pressure. On the contrary, gold can maintain stability or even rise. In addition, continued concerns about further escalation of military operations in the Middle East and uncertainty about the global economic outlook will continue to affect the direction of gold prices.
Today’s gold strategy: It is recommended to focus on low and long callbacks, supplemented by rebounds from high altitudes. Focus on the 2036 first-line resistance at the top and the 2008 first-line support at the bottom.
Analysis of crude oil news: In the U.S. market on Thursday (January 25), crude oil prices were trading around $76.50 per barrel. Due to the larger-than-expected withdrawal of U.S. crude oil inventories, the decline in U.S. crude oil production, and the economic stimulus of major crude oil users, Oil prices edged up about 1% on Wednesday amid geopolitical tensions and a weaker dollar. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said U.S. crude inventories fell by 9.2 million barrels last week, more than four times the 2.2 million barrels forecast by analysts in a Reuters poll. U.S. crude output fell to a five-month low of 12.3 barrels a day last week from a record 13.3 million barrels a day two weeks ago as oil wells froze during the Arctic freeze. Officials in North Dakota, the third-largest oil-producing state including the Bakken shale field, said it could take a month for oil production to recover in the state, where extreme gas outbursts last week cut production by more than half. A 24-nation coalition led by the United States and Britain launched a fresh attack on Yemen’s Houthi rebels, who have been attacking global trade as geopolitical tensions remained in focus. The United States says Iran-backed Houthi rebels have launched 26 attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea since the end of November. Before the attacks, the Red Sea accounted for about 12% of global oil trade. U.S. fourth-quarter GDP data will be released on Thursday, and the core personal consumption expenditures price index (Core PCE) will be released on Friday. These events could have a significant impact on the price of WTI crude oil in U.S. dollars.
Today’s crude oil strategy: It is recommended to focus on rebounding from high altitudes, supplemented by callbacks to lows. Focus on the first-line resistance of 78.3 at the top and the first-line support of 75.3 at the bottom.
Caution is required in operation and suggestions are provided for reference.
