Analysis of gold news: During the Asian market on Friday (January 5), the price of gold was trading around US$2,046 per ounce. The latest ADP data showed that private sector employment increased by 164,000 people last month, which was expected by the market. to 115,000 people. Following the release of the ADP data, gold prices gave up gains and fell below the 2040 mark. Analysts pointed out that the latest labor market data did not change the rules of the game, but still posed a challenge to the more aggressive pricing of interest rate cuts. ADP data beat expectations for the first time in five months, but the surprise was small. Both initial and continuing jobless claims were lower than expected. Still, it’s not surprising that Treasury yields rose slightly after the data, as markets remain optimistic about the outlook for the Fed’s easing policy. Minutes of the Federal Reserve’s December 12-13 meeting released on Wednesday showed that policymakers are increasingly aware that inflation is under control and are concerned about the risks that excessively tight monetary policy may pose to the economy. This increases the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, which is positive for the outlook for gold prices. Although uncertainty over when the Fed will announce a rate cut is likely to keep gold prices highly volatile. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders see a roughly 66% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points at its March 20 policy meeting. Gold prices rebounded from two-week lows after the meeting minutes were released, as a retreat in the dollar boosted investor demand. A weaker dollar and slightly lower U.S. interest rates are boosting gold prices, however, the outlook for a strong U.S. economy may force Federal Reserve policymakers to delay announcing a rate cut. Although they worry about excessive policy tightening, the rate cut may come later than market participants expect. The U.S. non-farm payrolls report will be released on Friday, which may provide more clues about the Fed’s next interest rate moves. Against this backdrop, investors should be prepared for possible severe market fluctuations.
Today’s gold strategy: It is recommended to focus on low and long callbacks, supplemented by rebounds from high altitudes. At the top, focus on the 2060 first-line resistance, and on the bottom, focus on the 2032 first-line support.
Analysis of crude oil news: On Friday (January 5), crude oil prices were trading around US$72.58 per barrel in the Asian market. Due to factors such as higher-than-expected U.S. crude oil inventories and easing concerns about the Red Sea crisis, oil prices were in volatile trading. go lower. U.S. Energy Information Administration data showed sluggish fuel demand and a significant buildup in inventories, putting pressure on prices. Gasoline inventories rose by 10.9 million barrels to 237 million barrels, the highest weekly increase in more than 30 years. Distillate inventories rose by 10.1 million barrels last week to 125.9 million barrels. The increase in EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventories in the United States in the week to December 29 was the largest since the week of June 26, 2020. Supply of distillate products, an indicator of demand, fell to its lowest level since 1999, EIA data showed. The four-week average supply of U.S. crude oil products was 20.586 million barrels per day, an increase of 0.55% from the same period last year. EIA data showed that while crude oil inventories fell by 5.5 million barrels this week, much of it reflected shipping disruptions in the Red Sea. The situation in the Red Sea has forced many refiners and crude buyers to head to the United States instead of going around the Horn of Africa. Maersk announced on Thursday local time that four of the company’s five container ships stranded in the Red Sea have been diverted to the Cape of Good Hope and are now returning to the Suez Canal from the Red Sea to prevent attacks by Houthi armed forces. So far, weak economic data has sent prices lower earlier in the session. Eurozone business activity shrank in December. Rising inflation in Germany could provide the European Central Bank with a reason to keep interest rates steady for some time.
Today’s crude oil strategy: It is recommended to focus on rebounding high, supplemented by callbacks low and long. Focus on the first-line resistance of 74.0 at the top and the first-line support of 71.2 at the bottom.
Caution is required in operation and suggestions are provided only for reference.
