Analysis of gold news: In the US market last Friday (January 5), the latest data from the US Department of Labor showed that non-farm employment increased by 216,000 people in December, exceeding market expectations, and wage growth also exceeded expectations. The data showed that the U.S. labor market was performing better than expected, reducing market expectations for the Federal Reserve to quickly cut interest rates this year. The strong performance of non-agricultural data has shaken financial market expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin to cut interest rates in March. Currently, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in March has dropped to 53.8%, compared with 60.4% before the release of non-agricultural data. In addition, according to CME “Fed Watch” data, the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in the range of 5.25%-5.50% in February is 97.4%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 2.6%. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged by March is 44.8%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point interest rate cut is 53.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point interest rate cut is 1.4%. After the non-agricultural data was released, the U.S. dollar surged, gold, silver and non-U.S. currencies plummeted instantly. Gold fell below $2,030, but then quickly rebounded to the level of $2,063. U.S. employers increased their hiring by 216,000 people in December, exceeding expectations. At the same time, Strong wage growth has shaken financial market expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates in March. Data show that the U.S. economy avoided recession last year and is likely to continue growing into 2024 as a resilient labor market supports consumer spending. However, there may be dangers lurking beneath the seemingly resilient labor market. Taken together, if the interest rate cut is delayed instead of earlier, then gold will still be under some pressure and may continue to experience an adjustment downward trend. But as far as the overall environment is concerned, factors favorable to gold will gradually emerge.
Today’s gold strategy: It is recommended to focus on low and long callbacks, supplemented by rebounds from high altitudes. Focus on the first-line resistance of 2055 at the top and the first-line support of 2030 at the bottom.
Crude oil news analysis: In the US market last Friday (January 5), the international US crude oil price was trading around US$73.90 per barrel. The intraday amplitude of oil prices exceeded 4% for the third consecutive day. Oil prices fluctuated sharply at the beginning of the new year. Behind this is the complex situation facing the crude oil market. EIA released weekly data yesterday evening. Crude oil inventories fell by 5.503 million barrels, and crude oil production fell by 100,000 barrels per day. However, refined oil inventories were significantly accumulated, and refinery operations increased. At the same time, due to the holiday effect, demand for refined oil products fell sharply, and gasoline and diesel prices fell sharply. The average accumulated inventory exceeded 10 million barrels, far exceeding expectations. This is a rare data, which has a significant impact on oil prices. After the data was released, the oil price correction increased, and the oil price gave up the geo-premium. The oil price once fell by 4% from the high, but in the end the oil price It still recovered most of the decline and finally closed the long shadow line. Too many influencing factors have brought uncertainty to the rhythm of oil prices, and large fluctuations in the market will often occur, posing challenges to participants. Although OPEC reiterated its commitment to market stability, investors are still skeptical about the role of OPEC’s voluntary production cuts. Oil prices fluctuated sharply after the year, but the monthly difference rebounded slightly this week. This performance shows that investors are OPEC’s production cuts have improved, and the crude oil market situation is still promising. Oil prices are in a low and volatile pattern, and the situation remains to be clarified. The current oil price fluctuates greatly and has poor unilateral continuity. Please participate with caution and pay attention to the rhythm.
Today’s crude oil strategy: It is recommended to focus on rebounding from high altitudes, supplemented by low and long corrections. Focus on the first-line resistance of 74.7 at the top and the first-line support of 72.0 at the bottom.
Caution is required in operation and suggestions are provided for reference.
