Analysis of gold news: In early trading in the U.S. market on Monday (January 8), the price of gold fell below US$2,030. The expected impact of the non-farm payrolls report (NFP) has not yet subsided. Precious metal traders’ bets on interest rate cuts in March began to ebb. People Pricing is being re-evaluated. Technical analysis points out that the support cluster for gold prices may be lost, and the short-term is facing bearish pressure. Gold prices were lower on Monday, driven by a stronger U.S. dollar and a shift in expectations for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy. The trend is a reaction to the latest U.S. economic indicators, which are guiding market sentiment toward an upcoming interest rate adjustment. The U.S. dollar index maintains a strong trend and is now trading at around 102.50, which puts pressure on gold prices. Gold prices were lower on Monday as rising U.S. Treasury yields were positive for the dollar, putting downward pressure on the yellow metal. There is no data to focus on during the day and at the beginning of the week. The market will mainly look for opportunities due to fluctuations in technical signals, and then focus on Thursday when the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release December Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is expected to rise 0.3% month-on-month, the same as November’s increase. If monthly core CPI reaches 0.5% or higher, it could push U.S. bond yields higher again and put pressure on gold. Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report showed stronger-than-expected job growth, prompting a reassessment of the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in March. This probability has been adjusted to about 64%, which is significantly lower than the nearly 90% probability seen before. Gold’s short-term outlook may be affected by the upcoming U.S. inflation report. On Thursday, traders will have a chance to react to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, followed by Friday’s Producer Price Index (PPI). Preliminary estimates show that the CPI rose by 0.2% in December, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, which will make it higher than the Federal Reserve’s 2.0% inflation target. Despite a strong end to 2023, gold’s moves are closely tied to changing U.S. labor market, inflation and interest rate forecasts. The short-term outlook for gold is bearish as the market expects U.S. consumer price index data to be released on Thursday. The report may further influence the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates, which is currently affected by an increase in labor market flexibility and a readjustment of interest rate expectations.
Today’s gold strategy: It is recommended to focus on low and long callbacks, supplemented by rebounds from high altitudes. At the top, focus on the 2048 first-line resistance, and on the bottom, focus on the 2018 first-line support.
Analysis of crude oil news: In the US market on Monday (January 8), international US crude oil prices were trading around US$72.10 per barrel. Oil prices closed higher in the first week of the new year. WTI closed at US$73.81 per barrel, with a cumulative increase of more than 3.01 US dollars. %. Oil prices have experienced frequent reversals under the influence of multiple factors, leaving investors struggling. This may indicate that the trend of crude oil in 2024 will be quite challenging for investors involved. Oil prices have been relatively strong over the past few days amid weaker overall commodity performance. The interpretation of the Red Sea incident and the explosion at the Soleimani memorial in Iran have heated up the unstable geopolitical situation in the Middle East, which is an important reason for the rebound in oil prices. However, these are not the only factors that affect oil prices. The macro level also has a significant impact on market risk preferences. , changes in expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve allowed the dollar to rebound and boost the performance of risk assets. In addition, OPEC made remarks in the New Year to try to boost market confidence. Oil prices have experienced significant fluctuations due to multiple influencing factors. The strong performance of U.S. non-farm payroll data last Friday night shook financial market expectations for the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates in March. Currently, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in March has dropped to 53.8%, compared with 60.4% before the release of non-agricultural data. The interpretation of non-agricultural data caused a sharp shock in the financial market, which also affected the rhythm of oil prices. However, in the end, oil prices still fluctuated and closed up. This also means that investors are weighing the multiple factors of macro factors, geographical factors and supply and demand. After the impact, we still chose to bet that oil prices will fluctuate upward at this stage due to OPEC’s efforts to voluntarily reduce production to maintain the stability of the oil market. However, at the beginning of the New Year, investors’ expectations are subject to greater uncertainty. The switching between increases and decreases in net long speculative positions shows that investor confidence is not sufficient at this stage, and may be disturbed by various influencing factors at any time. Oil prices experienced a sharp retracement in the first week of the New Year. The rising performance indicates that the rebound in oil prices is destined to not be smooth. Pay attention to the rhythm and control risks.
Today’s crude oil strategy: It is recommended to focus on the rebound to high altitudes, supplemented by the callback to lows. The top should focus on the 72.3 first-line resistance, and the bottom should focus on the 69.5 first-line support.
Caution is required in operation and suggestions are provided for reference.
