Analysis of gold news: As tensions intensified after Hamas attacked Israel and demand for safe havens increased, gold prices rose before the U.S. market on Monday (October 9). As of press time, spot gold has risen by more than 1%, reaching an intraday high of 1855.60 and currently trading at $1949.77 per ounce. Gold prices rose on Monday despite a surge in U.S. payrolls in September that provided the basis for another interest rate hike. Notably, over the weekend, Fed Governor Bowman said U.S. inflation remains too high, adding that further tightening of monetary policy may be needed. Higher interest rates are generally negative for gold prices. Inflation data due later this week could pave the way for another U.S. interest rate hike this year, undermining gold’s appeal. Investors are also focused on the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s September meeting, scheduled to be released on Wednesday. The key question is, if this weekend brings some structural changes to the geopolitical landscape, how long can these safe-haven flows last? This week, in addition to paying close attention to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, we also need to pay attention to US CPI inflation data and the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting. Gold prices rose more than 1% on Monday as military conflicts between the Israeli army and the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas intensified political uncertainty in the Middle East, prompting safe-haven buying in investment products such as gold. Financial markets braced for headwinds and volatility from a shock attack by militants in Gaza, sending oil prices soaring as the conflict threatens to heighten tensions in the Middle East, which holds nearly a third of the world’s supply. Safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese yen and the U.S. dollar also strengthened. Although the sudden crisis in Israel has caused a small premium for gold, gold will only see larger gains if the situation in the entire region escalates significantly.
Today’s gold strategy: It is recommended to focus on low and long callbacks, supplemented by rebounds from high altitudes. Focus on the first-line resistance of 1875 at the top and the first-line support of 1850 at the bottom.
Analysis of crude oil news: On Monday (October 9), U.S. crude oil opened higher and then fell slightly. It once jumped more than 4% and hit a three-day high of $86.45/barrel. On the one hand, there was another outbreak of violence between Palestine and Israel. The impact of large-scale conflicts is that on the one hand, there is demand for a rebound after oil prices fell by more than 8% last week. It needs to be reminded that if the Palestinian-Israeli conflict further worsens, oil prices are expected to reverse last week’s decline, and short-term attention will be paid to the resistance near the 21-day moving average of 89.04. Analysts point out that the global economy will no longer be affected by the Arab oil embargo, which will cause crude oil prices to triple. However, it would be a mistake to underestimate the likelihood that the world will face a longer period of high oil prices. If oil prices soar due to tensions in the Middle East, the White House will certainly use the SPR. Although oil reserves are at a 40-year low, there is still enough oil in reserve to weather another crisis. On the one hand, production cuts by Saudi Arabia, Russia and others are still continuing, and the supply side is still relatively tight. Crude oil inventories are at historically low levels. Turbulence on the supply side may trigger a change in market sentiment at any time. On the other hand, during the period of high oil prices, investors’ concerns about demand have significantly increased. In the past, This week’s EIA data gave very bad gasoline data. Not only did demand for U.S. gasoline fall sharply, but inventory also accumulated significantly.
Today’s crude oil strategy: It is recommended to focus on rebounding high, supplemented by callbacks low and long. Focus on the 85.9 first-line resistance at the top and the 83.6 first-line support at the bottom.
The execution of gold and crude oil trading must be done carefully, the above strategies are only recommended as reference.
