Gold news analysis: On Wednesday (November 15), data released showed that the U.S. retail sales (PPI) recorded a monthly rate of -0.1% in October, a new low since March this year. At the same time, the U.S. PPI monthly rate recorded -0.5% in October, the largest decline since April 2020. Retail sales across the country fell 0.1% in October, the first decline in seven months, but the decline is unlikely to persist as the country enters the holiday shopping season. This caused gold to dive after rising slightly at the beginning of the data release. Gold prices are under pressure as U.S. retail sales data fell more slowly than expected in October. But broader demand for the precious metal remains upbeat as easing price pressures in the U.S. economy undermine bets that the Federal Reserve will tighten policy further. The precious metal benefited from a slowdown in overall U.S. inflation, which was moderated by a sharp drop in gasoline prices. The weak U.S. inflation report for October suggested that the interest rates currently set by the Federal Reserve are enough to reduce inflation to 2%. The dollar and bond yields fell as a weak consumer price index (CPI) supported risk appetite. Easing consumer inflation has boosted investor confidence in the possibility of an early interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. A lower-than-expected U.S. CPI inflation report brought a huge boost, creating a perfect storm for gold. Behind gold’s new round of gains, the U.S. CPI inflation report was lower than expected and brought huge impetus. This data not only changed market expectations, but also changed investors’ views on the direction of Fed policy.
Today’s gold strategy: It is recommended to focus on low and long callbacks, supplemented by rebounds from high altitudes. Focus on the first-line resistance of 1970 at the top and the first-line support of 1945 at the bottom.
Analysis of crude oil news: In the U.S. market on Wednesday (November 15), crude oil prices were trading around $76.4 per barrel. Due to signs that tensions in the Middle East may ease and uncertainty about U.S. oil inventories, oil prices gave up their gains. , because the U.S. CPI data was weaker than market expectations, causing the U.S. dollar index to plummet to a more than two-month low, and the International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its crude oil demand forecast, oil prices once refreshed a one-week high. Tuesday’s rise was mainly due to the bullish outlook of OPEC’s monthly report, but crude oil still needs more room to rise to continue its recovery and requires a large number of catalysts. OPEC is not expected to hold a meeting until the end of November to release its forecast for the first half of 2024, and there may be further gains in the future. Cut supply. Although economic growth is expected to slow in almost all major economies, the International Energy Agency has upgraded its oil demand growth forecast for this year and next. A day earlier, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) raised its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2023 and maintained a relatively high forecast for 2024. U.S. consumer prices were unchanged in October as Americans paid less for gasoline and the annual increase in underlying inflation was the smallest in two years. Traders are betting that the U.S. Federal Reserve may begin cutting interest rates in May, which could boost economic activity and oil demand. Expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates next spring sent the dollar to a 2-1/2-month low against a basket of other currencies. A weaker dollar can boost oil demand by making crude cheaper for buyers using other currencies.
Today’s crude oil strategy: It is recommended to focus on the rebound to high altitudes, supplemented by the callback to low and long positions. Focus on the first-line resistance of 77.5 at the top and the first-line support of 75.0 at the bottom.
The operation of gold and crude oil trading must be done carefully, the above strategies are recommended only for reference.
