On Monday (November 20), the price of gold was trading around $1,979 per ounce in the U.S. market. As the U.S. dollar fell along with U.S. Treasury yields, gold gained bullish momentum last week, rising more than 2.5%. The Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its policy meeting from October 31 to November 1 on Tuesday. According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group’s FedWatch Tool, the market has almost completely priced in the Fed’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged in December. The market expects that there is less than a 15% chance that the policy rate will be maintained at 5.25%-5.5% by June next year. On Wednesday, the United States will release durable goods orders for October and weekly initial jobless claims. The market reaction to these data is likely to be immediate, with worse than expected data weighing on the dollar, while stronger data supporting the dollar. U.S. stock and bond markets will be closed Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday. On Friday, both markets will be open for a half-day. S&P Global will release preliminary U.S. manufacturing and services PMI values for November on Friday, but market behavior is likely to remain subdued amid thin trading. Investors can pay close attention to gold’s recent trends to look for new opportunities.
Today’s gold strategy: It is recommended to focus on low and long callbacks, supplemented by rebounds from high altitudes. At the top, focus on the 2003 first-line resistance, and on the bottom, focus on the 1977 first-line support.
Analysis of crude oil news: In the U.S. market on Monday (November 20), crude oil prices were trading around US$77.60 per ounce. Oil prices rebounded sharply last Friday night, basically recovering nearly 4% of the losses from the previous trading day. , investors are swaying over whether OPEC will increase production cuts, which has led to violent fluctuations in oil prices. However, judging from the current performance of the crude oil market, it is obvious that investors do not believe that the demand side is as strong as OPEC and the International Energy Agency judged. On the contrary, the main market views generally believe that weak demand has become an important reason for this round of oil price collapse. This also makes OPEC face a more passive situation than in the first half of the year. The sharp drop in oil prices this time shows that investors are anxious about the prospects of the crude oil market. With supply and demand weakening and economic concerns*, the crude oil market structure has begun to show a discount at the near end. There is no doubt that the pressure on oil prices is gradually increasing. Comprehensive assessment: OPEC’s operational space to continue to increase its efforts on the basis of Saudi Arabia’s current voluntary production cut of 1 million barrels per day is getting smaller and smaller. Investors remain skeptical about whether Saudi Arabia can once again lead OPEC to take more powerful measures to restore market confidence. Saudi Arabia’s existing voluntary production cut of 1 million barrels per day by early 2024 seems to have been defined by the market as necessary in advance. However, oil prices are still not out of the crisis for the time being, which shows that market confidence is at a very low level. In the end, we still have to wait for the 36th OPEC and non-OPEC ministerial meeting of oil-producing countries and the meeting of the OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing ministerial supervisory committee on November 26. Saudi Arabia and Russia can join forces to reduce production and make the final decision. , whether market expectations can be improved will become the most important factor affecting the crude oil market during the year.
Today’s crude oil strategy: It is recommended to focus on rebounding from high altitudes, supplemented by callbacks to lows. Focus on the first-line resistance of 79.1 at the top and the first-line support of 76.5 at the bottom.
The operation of gold and crude oil trading must be done carefully, the above strategies are recommended only for reference.
