Analysis of gold news: Spot gold remained volatile on Thursday (November 2), currently trading around $1,983. The U.S. dollar index bottomed out and is currently above the 106 mark. Due to the actions of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, traders doubled down on bets that global interest rates may eventually peak, and the stock market continued its gains. It’s worth noting that while the Fed’s pace of raising interest rates may be over, that doesn’t mean the Fed will start cutting rates immediately. Powell’s speech also emphasized that the Fed will continue to pay close attention to economic data and adjust policies flexibly. Therefore, investors still need to pay attention to future economic data and the Fed’s movements to better understand the development of the investment market. While gold is expected to benefit from the prospect of no more interest rate hikes, any significant upside for gold remains in doubt as U.S. interest rates are likely to remain elevated for longer. Powell also acknowledged that the Fed is still a long way from reaching its 2% inflation target and has previously suggested that the bank’s target interest rate will remain above 5% until at least the end of 2024. Higher interest rates are bad for gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding gold. Still, gold has maintained strong gains since October as the outbreak of war between Israel and Hamas boosted safe-haven demand. The focus is now entirely on Friday’s U.S. non-farm payrolls data. Any signs of strength in the job market would give the Fed more incentive to raise interest rates, a view reiterated by Powell on Wednesday. Private payrolls data released on Wednesday showed a cooling of the job market, which could signal weaker non-farm payrolls data.
Today’s gold strategy: It is recommended to focus on low and long callbacks, supplemented by rebounds from high altitudes. At the top, focus on the first-line resistance of 1998, and on the bottom, focus on the first-line support of 1969.
Analysis of crude oil news: In the U.S. market on Thursday (November 2), crude oil prices were trading around US$81.80/barrel. On Wednesday, oil prices staged a sharp surge and fell back. During the day, oil prices once rebounded from oversold and rose by more than 2 US dollar, but then oil prices fell back from their highs, completely giving up their gains and hitting a new intraday low. This performance further confirmed that investors are becoming pessimistic about the future outlook for oil prices. On the one hand, judging from the trend of oil prices, the support below is relatively solid. Secondly, although changes in the supply and demand level of the crude oil market have insufficient power to push up oil prices, the situation of low inventory will continue until the end of the year, which is an important reason for the resistance of oil prices. The Palestinian-Israeli conflict has been basically confined to Gaza, and its influence on oil prices has significantly weakened. However, the crude oil market itself is relatively lacking in news and lacks strong guidance. The fluctuation of oil prices depends more on the willingness of market funds, and expectations have led the decline in oil prices. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at the 5.25%-5.50% range at the early morning interest rate meeting as scheduled. The recent series of lower-than-expected U.S. data have increased investors’ concerns about the economy. Ultimately, the Federal Reserve’s decision will play a decisive role in the entire major asset class. Compared with the rebound in the stock market, oil prices have obviously not benefited from it, which will help alleviate inflation. pressure and the corresponding risk of interest rate hikes. EIA data shows that U.S. crude oil inventories are slightly overstocked, refined oil inventories are lower than expected, and the overall inventory data has not changed much. At a time when bullish news is needed to boost confidence, such data has a slightly bearish impact on oil prices. Overall, the current crude oil market morale is relatively good. downturn.
Today’s crude oil strategy: It is recommended to focus on rebounding high, supplemented by callbacks low and long. Focus on the first-line resistance of 83.6 at the top and the first-line support of 81.0 at the bottom.
The operation of gold and crude oil strategy must be done carefully, the above strategies are recommended only for reference.
