Analysis of gold news: Gold rebounded slightly to $1,980 in the US market on Tuesday (December 12). Technical analysis pointed out that gold prices showed a mild bullish trend. The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released, and Wednesday will usher in the Federal Reserve decision. Although expectations of an interest rate cut in March 2024 have weakened, market predictions have shifted to a possible interest rate cut in May. Gold prices stabilized on Tuesday, recovering from three-week lows as investors anticipated important U.S. inflation data and central bank policy meetings. These upcoming events will be critical in shaping expectations for future interest rate trends. The market expects that the U.S. CPI will remain unchanged month-on-month and rise 3% year-on-year, suggesting that inflation may cool down. The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain interest rates at 5.25-5.50%, and market predictions are shifting to a possible interest rate cut in May. Recent U.S. economic data, including a drop in the unemployment rate and University of Michigan consumer data showing signs of cooling inflation, have fueled optimism about a “soft landing” scenario. However, the dollar stabilized after positive employment data and expectations for a March rate cut have weakened, with a May rate cut becoming more likely. This week is filled with central bank meetings, including those from the European Central Bank, Bank of England and others, that could impact gold prices. While the Fed’s interest rate decision is highly anticipated, its stance may be more conservative than dovish market expectations, leading to caution in gold trading.
Today’s gold strategy: It is recommended to focus on low and long callbacks, supplemented by rebounds from high altitudes. At the top, focus on the 1991 first-line resistance, and on the bottom, focus on the 1965 first-line support.
Analysis of crude oil news: In the US market on Tuesday (December 12), crude oil prices were trading around US$69.4 per barrel. Oil prices rose slightly this week, but OPEC’s production cuts failed to fully offset the oversupply of crude oil and fuel demand next year. Worries about weak growth. The uncertainty of the global economic situation has increased, which will bring certain troubles to the crude oil market in 2024. OPEC members were divided at recent meetings, adding to doubts about plans for further production cuts. Citibank believes that OPEC is expected to stabilize oil prices in the range of US$70/barrel to US$80/barrel in 2024, but it will need to extend the recently announced production reduction plan. This decision has become a double-edged sword. Cutting production will reduce the income and output of member countries, but if production is not reduced, the situation may worsen further. The oil cartel OPEC has pledged to cut production by 2.2 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2024, but investors remain skeptical of its compliance. Non-OPEC production is expected to increase, leading to a supply glut in 2024, while uncertainty about Chinese demand is also a concern. Analysts say crude prices will continue to be volatile and directionless until the market sees clear data points on voluntary production cuts. Overall, the crude oil market faces supply and demand balance challenges, uncertainty about the global economic situation and weak demand pressure from China, a major oil importer. Investors will be paying close attention to key events in the coming weeks to gain additional insights into market movements.
Today’s crude oil strategy: It is recommended to focus on rebounding from high altitudes, supplemented by callbacks to lows. Focus on the 70.2 first-line resistance at the top and the 67.4 first-line support at the bottom.
The operation of gold and crude oil trading must be done carefully, the above strategies are recommended only for reference.
