Analysis of gold news: In the US market on Wednesday (December 13), the price of gold was trading around US$1,985 per ounce. US inflation data for November were released yesterday evening (December 12), with the annual CPI rate recording 3.1%. , in line with the expected value, lower than the previous value of 3.2%; the monthly rate recorded 0.1%, higher than the previous value and expected value of 0%. The annual and monthly core CPI rates were in line with expectations, meaning inflation in November was in line with expectations. In terms of items, there is a trend of falling energy prices and rising prices in the service industry. Combined with last week’s non-agricultural data, it increases the possibility of a “hawkish pause” and offsets the probability of a more substantial interest rate cut in 2024. Some analysts believe that this is not a good report for the Federal Reserve. It can only mean that the price surge since the epidemic may be over. The potential inflation is now closer to 3% rather than 2%. Gold prices gave up gains, dragged down by a recovery in U.S. Treasury yields, which has been unable to recover from its recent losses despite the continued weakness in the U.S. dollar index. As geopolitical tensions remain high, gold is likely to remain supported and attract buyers in the event of a sharp decline. The Fed is widely expected to keep its current benchmark interest rate unchanged at 5.25%-5.5% and focus on next year’s interest rate forecast and Fed Chairman Powell’s press conference. Investors will be looking for dovish hints in Powell’s comments to revive hopes of a rate cut in early 2024, which would give gold prices a new boost. Ahead of the Fed’s decision, there were tepid moves on Wall Street, with the latest inflation data reinforcing speculation that policymakers are not yet eager to declare victory. While markets continued to bet on Wednesday that Fed officials would remain on hold, recent economic data cast doubt on the aggressive pricing of a dovish shift. Traders have slightly lowered their bets on rate cuts in 2024, with the first rate cut still expected to occur in May. The data also fueled speculation that Powell would pour cold water on the Fed’s easing policy.
Today’s gold strategy: It is recommended to focus on low and long callbacks, supplemented by rebounds from high altitudes. At the top, focus on the 2045 first-line resistance, and on the bottom, focus on the 2017 first-line support.
Analysis of crude oil news: In the US market on Wednesday (December 13), crude oil prices were trading around US$68.2/barrel. After the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data was released, the international crude oil futures settlement price fell by more than 3.5%. to the lowest level in six months. Because the oversupply is too large to be made up in the short term, concerns about oversupply have led investors to expect a bleak outlook for crude oil prices in 2024. Crude oil fell to a five-month low as signs of strong supply continued to grow. WTI fell 3.8% and settled below $69/barrel, its lowest since late June. Crude oil prices have fallen for seven consecutive weeks, and new production reduction measures taken by OPEC and its allies have failed to stop the decline. Oil prices remain under pressure amid the latest signs that supply remains adequate. The U.S. consumer price index unexpectedly rose in November, further reinforcing the view that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates early next year. Some analysts said that higher interest rates for a longer period of time could slow economic growth and lead to weaker oil demand. Global oil demand growth is expected to slow in 2024, and OPEC and the International Energy Agency disagree on the extent of the slowdown. OPEC and the International Energy Agency both updated their forecasts this week. Negative sentiment towards the oil complex remains strong. Weak demand and concerns that an OPEC deal to curb supply will not do enough to balance the market have weighed on prices.
Today’s crude oil strategy: It is recommended to focus on rebounding from high altitudes, supplemented by callbacks to lows. Focus on the 71.5 first-line resistance at the top and the 69.1 first-line support at the bottom.
The operation of gold and crude oil trading must be done carefully, the above strategies are recommended only for reference.
