Analysis of gold news: Gold prices hit a record high on Monday (December 4), but then gave back some of their gains as traders bet that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates next year. As of press time, spot gold was trading at US$2,023.74 per ounce, down 2.33% on the day, slightly down from the earlier rally that lifted this typical safe-haven asset to a record high of US$2,146. Gold posted strong gains last week and posted gains for a second consecutive month in November. Gold has appreciated sharply in recent sessions amid speculation that the central bank will lower borrowing costs in 2024 from peaks in more than two decades amid easing inflation, weak labor market data and waning hawkish signals from the Fed. On Friday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell said monetary policy “has entered restrictive territory,” causing the dollar and Treasury yields to plummet, which is good for non-interest-bearing gold, which has been rising since early October.
Today’s gold strategy: It is recommended to focus on low and long callbacks, supplemented by rebounds from high altitudes. At the top, focus on the 2050 first-line resistance, and on the bottom, focus on the 2020 first-line support.
Analysis of crude oil news: In the US market on Monday (December 4), crude oil prices were trading around US$73.30 per barrel. The crude oil market experienced a chaotic November, especially the last three weeks of November, which revolved around the OPEC meeting. The situation has been shaken and see-sawed, and the holding of the OPEC meeting on November 30 has pushed this scene to a climax. In the end, Brent fell by more than 6% in November, WTI crude oil fell by more than 7%, and SC crude oil fell by nearly 10%, becoming the weakest benchmark oil in recent times. During the decline in oil prices, speculative net longs continued to leave the market. Changes in the supply and demand levels of the crude oil market in the past period have continued to strengthen investors’ pessimistic expectations for the future of oil prices. Faced with oil prices that have fallen sharply since October, the morale of the oil market is low. Investors have focused their attention on the 36th OPEC Ministerial Meeting, hoping that Saudi Arabia can lead OPEC to turn the tide. Before the meeting, it also whetted the appetite of investors. First, due to too great differences, the date of the meeting was postponed from November 26 to 30. Before the meeting, relevant sources continued to release news that continuously raised the production reduction target, which excited the market. Investors’ expectations have also increased. Full expectations are often a dangerous sign. As the results of the meeting showed that OPEC member states each announced “voluntary” production cuts in the first quarter of next year, with a total scale of 2.193 million barrels per day, investors were driven by the psychological gap that was lower than expected. Attention has focused on the negative aspects of production cuts, and oil prices have fallen sharply in the short term as disappointment spread. Overall, to evaluate this OPEC meeting, some analysts believe that this was a meeting that did not satisfy the market. However, this meeting still helped stabilize the oil market, alleviated the risk of a sharp drop in oil prices to a certain extent, and boosted oil prices. Investor morale has a limited effect. The follow-up will also depend on the degree of improvement in the actual supply and demand level of the crude oil market and whether it can attract long funds to return.
Today’s crude oil strategy: It is recommended to focus on rebounding from high altitudes, supplemented by low and long corrections. Focus on the first-line resistance of 74.7 at the top and the first-line support of 72.0 at the bottom.
The operation of gold and crude oil trading must be done carefully, the above strategies are recommended only for reference.
