Analysis of gold news: Entering the U.S. market on Tuesday (February 27), spot gold continued the high and volatile momentum of the previous few days. It is currently trading around $2,030, and the U.S. dollar weakened slightly below the 104 mark to provide certain support. However, for the gold market, the most critical thing is the U.S. PCE price index on Thursday, which is the inflation indicator favored by the Federal Reserve. Investors hope to get further clues about interest rate cuts. Gold, which has been flat recently, is expected to continue to fluctuate before then. trend. As the dollar weakened, investors awaited key U.S. inflation reports and speeches from Federal Reserve officials for clues on the timing of a possible rate cut. Spot gold continues its volatile momentum since the beginning of this week and is currently trading above $2,030, with intraday fluctuations of no more than $10. At the same time, the U.S. dollar has weakened, making dollar-denominated gold relatively less expensive for holders of other currencies. The dollar struggled to find direction on Tuesday ahead of key data that could provide further clues on the Federal Reserve’s policy path. Recent comments from Fed policymakers have suggested the central bank is in no rush to cut interest rates, largely reinforcing bets that there will be no rate cuts before June. The market has recently lowered its expectations for the timing and scale of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts this year because the U.S. economy remains strong and inflationary pressures have not been significantly alleviated. According to LSEG’s interest rate probability application IRPR, the market currently expects about 81 basis points of interest rate cuts in 2024, with a 64% chance of a first 25 basis point rate cut in June. Lower interest rates increase the appeal of holding non-yielding gold. At least 10 Fed officials are set to speak this week, while investors are focused on Thursday’s release of the core personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), one of the key highlights on the U.S. calendar this week that could signal Bets on Fed easing are less aggressive. Investors are also eyeing the risk of a shutdown of U.S. government agencies if Congress cannot reach a deal by Friday to extend the debt.
Today’s gold strategy: It is recommended to focus on low and long callbacks, supplemented by rebounds from high altitudes. At the top, focus on the 2047 first-line resistance, and on the bottom, focus on the 2018 first-line support.
Analysis of crude oil news: In the U.S. market on Tuesday (February 27), U.S. crude oil prices were trading around US$78.30 per barrel. On Monday night, oil prices got rid of the intraday decline and rebounded strongly to recover most of the losses on Friday. Oil prices were at After oscillating within a narrow range under the resistance*, the current oil price has not broken through the resistance and cannot overcome the technical adjustment for a long time. The biggest constraint is the lack of bright spots in the early demand-side refined oil market performance. This situation may change in the future. The domestic diesel market, which has been weak in the early stage, has begun to show significant improvement. Although crude oil prices have plummeted, diesel quotations have bucked the trend and rebounded over the weekend, and the cracking gap of refined oil products in the European and American markets has also begun. The recovery and improvement on the demand side will further boost market confidence, which has promoted the rebound of oil prices. Pay attention to the progress of the subsequent recovery of market sentiment. Judging from the recent changes in domestic diesel prices, this view is gradually strengthening. The strong performance of U.S. crude oil may once again become the first mover in the global crude oil market, taking the lead in breaking through current resistance and promoting an upgrade in the rebound of oil prices. In addition, judging from the current agency’s response to OPEC’s production cuts, it is generally believed that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries will extend the production cut cycle. In the future, we need to pay attention to the comments of relevant OPEC member countries on production policies in March. The performance of oil prices is as mentioned in our weekly report. The correction of crude oil prices may be an opportunity to enter the market at low prices. Pay attention to the rhythm and participate carefully.
Today’s crude oil strategy: It is recommended to focus on rebounding from high altitudes, supplemented by callbacks to lows. Focus on the first-line resistance of 76.8 at the top and the first-line support of 79.8 at the bottom.
Caution is required in operation and suggestions are provided for reference.
