Gold news analysis: U.S. CPI data released on Tuesday (March 12) showed that the U.S. core CPI (excluding food and energy costs) in February increased by 0.4% compared with January and increased by 3.8% compared with the same period last year. . Economists consider core CPI a better measure of underlying inflation than overall CPI. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, overall CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month and 3.2% year-on-year, with rising gasoline prices playing a driving role. The U.S. dollar index rose 20 points in the short term, reaching a maximum of 103.17, and then fell back, giving up almost all the gains after the data was released. The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield turned higher on the day and is now at 4.10%. After the data was released, spot gold fell by US$10 in the short-term, quickly rebounded and continued to strengthen after recovering the losses. The short-term volatility was nearly US$32, reaching a maximum of US$2181.93. Afterwards, gold plunged US$20 again, breaking through the two major levels of 2170 and 2160. Fluctuation near $50. Year-on-year inflation rates for both headline and core indicators were higher than economists predicted, which initially shocked the market and began to worry about whether the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates three times this year. Inflation data released in the United States are stronger than expected and are beginning to affect expectations that the Federal Reserve will shift to a dovish policy as early as June. The data may extend the correction of gold prices and fall towards the low of $2,154 per ounce on March 8. From a technical perspective, the next support for gold prices is expected to be $2,145/ounce, which is 23.6 of the rebound trend from the March 7 low and $1,984/ounce (February 14 low) to $2,195/ounce (historical high). % confluence point of Fibonacci retracement levels.
Today’s gold strategy: It is recommended to focus on low and long callbacks, supplemented by rebounds from high altitudes. Focus on the 2174 first-line resistance at the top and the 2145 first-line support at the bottom.
Analysis of crude oil news: In the U.S. market on Tuesday (March 12), U.S. crude oil fluctuated and rose, currently trading at $77.9 per barrel. Oil prices were little changed on Monday as concerns eased that war in the Middle East would disrupt supplies and data from major Asian countries showed weak demand, although increased U.S. refining activity limited selling. Brent crude oil futures for May delivery LCOc1 closed at $82.21 a barrel, up $0.13. The U.S. crude oil contract for April fell $0.08 to close at $77.93 a barrel. Both benchmark contracts ended last week lower after bearish data from major Asian countries suggested weak demand from the world’s largest crude importer. Brent crude fell 1.8% last week, although the contract has remained above $80 a barrel for more than a month. U.S. crude fell 2.5% last week. U.S. crude oil is currently in an upward channel, but has fallen back after encountering resistance from the upper track of the channel. In the short term, it may further test the support of the lower track of the channel. The support near the 100-day moving average of 75.95 is also near the lower track of the channel. Data on Thursday showed that the Asian giant’s crude oil imports increased in the first two months of this year compared with the same period in 2023, but were weaker than in previous months, continuing a trend of reduced purchases. Increased U.S. refining activity could tighten global crude supplies, which could help limit oil price declines.
Today’s crude oil strategy: It is recommended to focus on rebounding high, supplemented by callbacks low and long. Focus on the first-line resistance of 79.2 at the top and the first-line support of 76.2 at the bottom.
Caution is required in operation and suggestions are provided for reference.
