Analysis of gold news: On Tuesday (March 5), as the market became increasingly hopeful that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates for the first time in June, the price of gold moved towards a record high. Traders see a greater than 50% chance that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates in June, which could boost demand for non-yielding gold, according to the CME Fed Watch tool. As of press time, gold has jumped to $2,130.06 per ounce, an increase of 0.74%. It once reached an intraday high of $2,141.82, breaking the all-time high of $2,135.39 set on December 4 last year. Gold has gained nearly $100 over the past five trading days, driven by expectations of monetary easing, geopolitical tensions and the risk of a stock market pullback. The scale of the recent gains has surprised some market watchers, who say it may be driven in part by momentum. But it is worth noting that as of March 4, the holdings of SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold exchange-traded fund, fell by 10% from the previous year. Weak U.S. manufacturing data on Friday raised the risk of a stock market correction, which may have persuaded some investors to switch from stocks to gold. Although the timing of the Fed’s policy shift remains uncertain, signs since mid-February have shown that This policy shift is approaching. The swap market shows that the probability of a rate cut in June is close to 60%, which is higher than at the beginning of last month. Lower borrowing costs are generally positive for gold because gold itself does not generate any interest. This uncertainty has prompted some analysts to question the sustainability of gold’s recent surge.
Today’s gold strategy: It is recommended to focus on low and long callbacks, supplemented by rebounds from high altitudes. Focus on the 2140 first-line resistance at the top and the 2112 first-line support at the bottom.
Analysis of crude oil news: In the US market on Tuesday (March 5), US crude oil prices were trading around US$78.20 per barrel. After the OPEC production cut boots were implemented on Monday, oil prices fell back from highs, and WTI crude oil rushed to US$80, touching an important level. At the target mark, some funds have made periodic profit-taking actions. OPEC’s extension of production cuts has triggered anxiety about supply stability from the demand side, and there are suspicions of overreaction. The surge in oil prices last Friday was an early reaction to the extension of production cuts, while the fall in oil prices during the Asia-Europe period on Monday was a reaction after the bullish profits were realized. Typical The speculation is expected to sell realistic characteristics. OPEC has fulfilled its promise. At the OPEC Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) meeting in February, Russia and Saudi Arabia, the core countries of the production reduction alliance, both stated that OPEC production cuts can definitely be extended beyond the first quarter if necessary.At that time, the market expected that there would be some progress in early March on whether to extend production cuts. On Sunday, March 3, OPEC quickly made a statement on extending voluntary production cuts to the second quarter. Such actions showed that OPEC was committed to maintaining the stability of the oil market. Still a consistent goal, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak said that the additional voluntary production cuts are to strengthen the preventive efforts of OPEC countries to support the stability and balance of the oil market, which represents OPEC’s view. OPEC’s early decision to extend production cuts shows its determination to safeguard market stability, make the market structure healthier, and provide a floor for oil prices. This is the most important point. But looking at it from another perspective also reflects that the current crude oil market cannot provide sufficient driving force for oil prices only on the demand side. Changing from passive to active defense has become OPEC’s core task this year, which also means that it is difficult for oil prices to continue to rise strongly. After oil prices surged to the key integer mark and refreshed the new year’s high, the elimination of uncertainty about production cuts may lead to a cooling of sentiment. The absolute price fell while also falling simultaneously at the beginning of the month, and there is a need for short-term adjustment.
Today’s crude oil strategy: It is recommended to focus on rebounding high, supplemented by callbacks low and long. Focus on the first-line resistance of 78.8 at the top and the first-line support of 76.0 at the bottom.
Caution is required in operation and suggestions are provided for reference.
