On Wednesday (April 16), during the U.S. trading session, spot gold saw a slight rise and is currently trading around $3,238.50 per ounce. As uncertainty from President Trump’s tariff plans continues, investors are turning to safe-haven assets. The additional tariffs may intensify the ongoing trade war and slow global economic growth. With global stock markets bottoming out, gold’s pressure eased, leading to a sharp rally that hit a record high. This surge was particularly strong, as investors rushed into the gold market, viewing it as a hedge against stagflation caused by the trade war. However, according to Bank of America’s fund manager survey, “long gold” is currently the most crowded trade. From a broader macroeconomic perspective, gold remains in an uptrend because real yields may continue to fall due to the still-high threshold for rate hikes. Risks include a major sell-off in stocks or a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve. In the short term, with long positions in gold overly concentrated, a de-escalation in the trade war could trigger a deeper correction in gold prices. Thus, this aspect should be closely monitored.
While the current environment continues to support gold’s rise, the path upward may not be smooth and temporary pullbacks may occur.
Gold Strategy Today: Focus on buying on dips, with short-selling on rebounds as a secondary approach. Watch for resistance around $3,285 and support around $3,255.
In its April monthly report, OPEC stated that global daily oil demand is expected to increase by 1.3 million barrels in 2025 and by 1.28 million barrels in 2026. Both forecasts were revised down by 150,000 barrels/day compared to last month. This is OPEC’s first adjustment to demand growth outlook since December 2024. This downgrade stems mainly from two factors: the U.S.’s new round of trade tariffs on a major Asian country, and weaker-than-expected global economic data for Q1 2025. These factors have increased uncertainty over the global economic outlook. OPEC’s adjustment sends multiple signals: on one hand, U.S. tariff policies have already pressured global energy demand; on the other, while the oil market continues to see a supply-demand tug of war, OPEC remains optimistic about long-term demand.
However, persistent overproduction by member countries like Kazakhstan introduces new variables into OPEC’s overall coordination. If economic data continues to disappoint, OPEC may revisit its production strategy at the next meeting.
Oil Strategy Today: Prioritize short-selling on rebounds, with buying on dips as a secondary approach. Watch resistance at $62.1 and support at $59.1.
