Analysis of gold news: Data released on Thursday (May 30) showed that the revised annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the United States in the first quarter was 1.3%, lower than the previous initial value of 1.6%. The data reflected lower-than-expected consumer spending, with personal spending, the main growth engine of the U.S. economy, rising 2.0%, down from the initial 2.5% reading. In terms of inflation, the revised annualized quarterly rate of the PCE price index in the United States in the first quarter was 3.3%, slightly lower than the expected 3.4%. The core PCE price index, which excludes food and energy, recorded an annualized quarterly revision of 3.6%, lower than the expected 3.7%. Traders now see a roughly 47% chance of a rate cut by September, compared with a 60% chance ahead of the Fed minutes, according to data from the CME Fed watch Tool. The market is eagerly awaiting a new round of U.S. economic data and more speeches from Federal Reserve policymakers for new policy clues. To sum up, the high interest rate environment is likely to continue, and market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates have weakened. Technical analysts noted that gold prices could fall further, but would need to break below key support levels to start a new downward trend. Investors should pay close attention to upcoming economic data and speeches from Federal Reserve officials for more clues on market trends.
Today’s gold strategy: It is recommended to focus on low and long callbacks, supplemented by rebounds from high altitudes. Focus on the first-line resistance of 2361 at the top and the first-line support of 2331 at the bottom.
Analysis of crude oil news: International oil prices fluctuated and fell slightly on Thursday (May 30), with U.S. crude oil currently trading around $77.8 per barrel. Oil prices fell about 1% on Wednesday on worries that weak U.S. gasoline demand and economic data could lead the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates higher for longer. High interest rates aimed at countering high inflation could drag on economic growth and reduce demand for oil. Brent crude oil futures fell $0.62, or 0.7%, to settle at $83.60 a barrel on Wednesday; U.S. crude oil futures fell $0.60, or 0.8%, to settle at $79.23. The front-month Brent crude oil contract’s premium to the next-month contract fell to its lowest premium since January. The industry refers to this premium as backwardation. Looking ahead, investors are awaiting the U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index report for April to be released on Friday. The latest API crude oil inventories dropped by 6.49 million barrels, a drop greater than market expectations of 1.9 million barrels; gasoline inventories fell by 450,000 barrels; however, distillate inventories unexpectedly increased by 2.045 million barrels. Investors also need to pay attention to the EIA crude oil inventory data that will be released in the evening. The data was originally released on Wednesday, but was delayed to Thursday because of Monday. This trading day also needs to pay attention to changes in the number of initial jobless claims in the United States and the revised value of U.S. first-quarter GDP, and pay attention to the speeches of Federal Reserve officials. In addition, OPEC, including the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies such as Russia, will hold a meeting on Sunday. The market expects that the meeting will continue to voluntarily reduce production by about 2.2 million barrels per day. Investors need to pay attention to changes in market expectations and dynamic news.
Today’s crude oil strategy: It is recommended to focus on rebounding from high altitudes, supplemented by low and long corrections. Focus on the first-line resistance of 78.9 at the top and the first-line support of 75.9 at the bottom.
Operations need to be done with caution and are recommended for reference only.
