Analysis of gold news: In the US market on Thursday (June 13), data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the PPI in May fell by 0.2% month-on-month and increased by 2.2% year-on-year. the largest decrease. Analysts from well-known institutions pointed out that the decline in PPI may be a sign that inflationary pressures are easing, which provides the Federal Reserve with more flexibility in future monetary policy adjustments. After the PPI data was released, spot gold rose by US$20 in the short term, briefly exceeding US$2,320/oz, reaching a maximum of US$2,326.56/oz. Although there was a slight decline during the day, the overall trend remained strong. Later, it fell slightly, showing the market’s sensitivity to changes in inflation expectations. The U.S. dollar index fell about 30 points in the short term, then recovered some of the losses and rose slightly during the day. Non-U.S. currencies generally rose, reflecting the market’s reassessment of U.S. dollar assets. The number of people filing for initial unemployment benefits in the United States in the week to June 8 was 242,000, a new high since the week of August 12, 2023. The rise in this data may imply pressure on the labor market. Combined with the PPI data, the overall economic situation shows a certain degree of complexity. Analysts remain cautious and believe that more economic data is needed to support judgments on economic trends. The decline in U.S. PPI and the rise in initial jobless claims in May gave the market dual signals that inflation may have peaked and the labor market is uncertain. Against this backdrop, investors and analysts need to remain vigilant and conduct comprehensive analysis of various economic indicators. Every fluctuation in the market is an exploration of the future economic direction. As more economic data is released one after another, we will continue to pay attention to and interpret its profound impact on global financial markets.
Today’s gold strategy: It is recommended to focus on low and long callbacks, supplemented by rebounds from high altitudes. Focus on the 2320 first-line resistance at the top and the 2290 first-line support at the bottom.
Analysis of crude oil news: In the U.S. market on Thursday (June 13), U.S. crude oil surged higher but fell back, currently trading around $77.76 per barrel. Oil prices retreated from highs on Wednesday as tensions in the Middle East continued to provide support. Oil prices rose nearly 2% earlier in the session, hitting a new high in nearly two weeks, but closed back most of their gains as the Federal Reserve’s statement after the two-day meeting suggested that , interest rate cuts may not begin until December. Oil prices continued to close higher on Wednesday, but the daily line left a long upper shadow for oil prices. The International Energy Agency (IEA)’s latest monthly report on Wednesday lowered its 2024 oil demand growth forecast by 100,000 barrels per day to 960,000 barrels per day, and warned that demand will peak before 2030, when more than 8 million barrels per day will be produced. Japan’s idle production capacity, although there is a need for adjustment in terms of breakdown structure, oil prices still rose tenaciously after the release of the IEA report. The strong performance, ignoring the negative news, formed a great contrast with the beginning of last week. This trend of oil prices shows that it is expected to recover significantly. , but at the same time, the market has obvious emotional characteristics, which also means that the market stability is poor and large fluctuations may occur at any time. In the past half month, the crude oil market has experienced an exaggerated sharp decline and rapid rebound, a V-shaped trend exceeding the $7 range. Oil prices have once again returned to the long-short stalemate stage in May, including the Brent monthly difference. Judging from the performance of high-frequency indicators, the crude oil market has passed the worst stage of oil prices. However, if oil prices continue to rise from the current position, more improvements in supply and demand will be needed, and this will take time. The current demand-side performance is still not as good as expected. In the short term, there is a need to repair overbought oil prices. It is necessary to consolidate the position and digest the resistance in the current range. There is a high probability that it will enter an adjustment. Pay attention to the rhythm and participate with caution.
Today’s crude oil strategy: It is recommended to focus on rebounding high, supplemented by callbacks low and long. Focus on the first-line resistance of 79.3 at the top and the first-line support of 76.3 at the bottom.
Operations need to be done with caution and are recommended for reference only.
