Analysis of gold news: Before the U.S. market last Friday (June 14), the price of gold continued to rise and hit a high near 2336. With the subtle changes in the global economy, this week’s market forecast focuses on the central bank’s decision-making trends and U.S. retail sales. The reveal of sales figures, and the supply crisis in the cocoa market. This article provides an in-depth analysis of these key factors to provide investors with a picture of the potential direction of global markets this week. In the coming week, the central bank meetings of the United Kingdom, Switzerland and Norway will be the focus of the market. The meetings are expected to provide more evidence amid a slowdown in the pace of global interest rate cuts. Expectations for the Bank of England to cut interest rates ahead of the Conservative election appear to be waning, with markets now pricing in around a 40% chance of a rate cut in August, compared with 70% in September. Meanwhile, the Swiss National Bank has a 50% chance of cutting interest rates on Thursday after inflation stabilized in March. Norges Bank is likely to release new economic forecasts and is in no rush to cut interest rates. The U.S. dollar index has risen for two consecutive trading days and is currently trading near the 105.70 level, with an intraday increase of 0.46%. The trend of the U.S. dollar is directly affected by Federal Reserve policy and economic data. Although the Federal Reserve delayed the expected timing of a rate cut at its recent meeting, lower-than-expected producer and consumer price data, as well as a cooling labor market, provided support for the dollar. In addition, data released by the U.S. Department of Labor showed that the number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time increased by 13,000 to 242,000 in the week ending June 8, compared with market expectations of 225,000. The increase in this data may suggest that the labor market is reaching balance and economic growth may slow down, further supporting market expectations for future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. U.S. retail sales data The strength of the U.S. economy and the timing of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts are another focus for investors. Monthly retail sales data for June 18 is expected to rise 0.3%, after unexpectedly being flat in April. Consumer spending has become an important indicator of the impact of rising interest rates on the economy. Although U.S. job creation far exceeded expectations in May, flat consumer prices point to mixed economic signals. The direction of global markets this week will be affected by a variety of factors, including central bank monetary policy decisions, the release of U.S. retail sales data, and the supply crisis in the cocoa market. Investors need to pay close attention to these key events to make informed investment decisions.
Today’s gold strategy: It is recommended to focus on low and long callbacks, supplemented by rebounds from high altitudes. Focus on the 2340 first-line resistance at the top and the 2310 first-line support at the bottom.
Analysis of crude oil news: In the U.S. market last Friday (June 14), international oil prices surged but fell back. U.S. crude oil is currently trading around $78.48/barrel, a decrease of about 1%. The U.S. dollar index rebounded sharply overnight, causing Oil prices are under significant pressure, although OPEC refuted the IEA’s forecast that oil demand will peak in 2029. In addition, EIA crude oil inventories have increased significantly and the number of initial jobless claims in the United States has increased, which has heightened demand concerns. Brent crude oil futures fell 0.4% on Thursday to close at $82.19 per barrel. U.S. crude oil futures fell 0.52% on Thursday to close at $77.91 per barrel. On the previous trading day, both indicators of crude oil prices rose by nearly 1%. Because OPEC believes that oil demand will not reach its peak in its long-term forecast, international oil prices fell. WTI crude oil futures finally closed down 0.50% at $77.93 per barrel. International oil prices have rebounded recently, mainly because Saudi Arabia said that its production increase plan starting in October may be suspended or canceled at any time, dispelling market concerns about possible future production increases. From the demand side, the current main focus of the market is that the peak season for traditional fuel consumption in the United States has arrived, and the seasonal benefits have become increasingly obvious. Although OPEC has held steady for several months, EIA raised its demand growth rate from 920,000 barrels per day to 1.1 million barrels per day in June, improving its view on the demand outlook. Another recent focus of the market is the increasing expectation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September. Another recent focus of the market is the increasing expectation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September. At present, the mainstream market believes that there is a high probability of an interest rate cut in September, and there is till potential positive support for international oil prices in the long term.
Today’s crude oil strategy: It is recommended to focus on rebounding high, supplemented by callbacks low and long. Focus on the first-line resistance of 79.3 at the top and the first-line support of 76.3 at the bottom.
Operations need to be done with caution and are recommended for reference only.
