Gold Market Analysis:
Tuesday, July 9 U.S. Trading Session:
Spot gold experienced narrow fluctuations and a rebound during the U.S. trading session, currently trading around $2,365 per ounce. On Monday, gold prices fell by more than 1%, closing at $2,358.98 per ounce, effectively erasing all of last Friday’s gains. Spot gold plunged by $32 on Monday, at one point nearing the $2,350 per ounce mark. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that “more good data” would increase confidence that inflation is moving towards the Fed’s 2% target, with recent data showing that prices are “moderating further.” The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, to be released on Thursday, will also be closely watched; recent data has shown that CPI prices have retreated from the unexpected highs earlier this year. If the market sees evidence that U.S. inflation remains stubborn, this could lead to precious metals giving back recent gains. According to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, traders currently estimate a 77% chance of a rate cut in September, up from 66% a week ago. The market’s optimism about a U.S. rate cut is also supporting gold’s outlook. ING’s U.S. economists expect the Fed to make its first rate cut in September, with three cuts anticipated this year, while the market is currently expecting two cuts. If this expectation materializes, it will undoubtedly have a positive impact on the gold market. Lower borrowing costs are generally favorable for non-interest-bearing gold, as a rate cut reduces the opportunity cost of holding gold, potentially attracting more investors.
Today’s Gold Strategy: It is recommended to focus primarily on buying during pullbacks and selling during rebounds. Pay attention to the resistance at the 2383 level and the support at the 2353 level.
Crude Oil Market Analysis: On Tuesday (July 9) during the U.S. trading session, U.S. crude oil experienced narrow fluctuations and a slight decline, currently trading around $81.57 per barrel. Oil prices fell by about 1% on Monday, hitting a one-week low. Hurricane Beryl led to the closure of refineries and ports along the U.S. Gulf Coast, raising concerns that the hurricane would affect travel, thereby dragging down demand. Additionally, the market briefly anticipated that a possible ceasefire agreement in Gaza could alleviate concerns about disruptions to global oil supply. However, geopolitical concerns have resurfaced, which may provide some short-term support to oil prices. Oil prices fell by about 1% on Monday, hitting a one-week low, as Hurricane Beryl led to the closure of refineries and ports along the U.S. Gulf Coast, raising concerns about the impact on travel and demand.
Today’s Crude Oil Strategy: It is recommended to focus primarily on selling during rebounds and buying during pullbacks. Pay attention to the resistance at the 82.2 level and the support at the 79.2 level.
Caution: Operations should be approached with caution, and the recommendations are for reference only.
