Gold Market Analysis:
USD/JPY Exchange Rate and U.S. CPI Data Impact: Last Friday (July 12), data showed that U.S. inflation cooled more than expected, leading to a sharp rise in the Japanese yen against the U.S. dollar. Market sources indicated that the dollar’s sell-off was likely a result of profit-taking following weak U.S. data, but traders remained highly vigilant for signs that Japanese authorities might take new intervention measures to support the yen, which was hovering near a 38-year low. The USD/JPY exchange rate fell by up to 2.5% below 158. Kenneth Broux, head of corporate research for foreign exchange and rates at Société Générale, stated that while this was undoubtedly a significant market move, it should not be attributed to intervention; instead, the CPI was the trigger. The USD/JPY drop was more about triggering stop-loss orders rather than any intervention. After the U.S. CPI data was released, the DXY dollar index fell by over 40 points in the short term, while non-dollar currencies generally rose: EUR/USD climbed nearly 50 points, GBP/USD rose over 60 points, and USD/JPY fell by 90 points. Following the inflation data release, the probability of the Federal Reserve holding rates steady in August is 91.2%, with an 8.8% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut. For September, there is a 7.3% chance of the Fed keeping rates unchanged, an 84.6% chance of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut, and an 8.1% chance of a cumulative 50-basis-point cut.
Today’s Gold Strategy: It is recommended to focus primarily on buying during pullbacks and selling during rebounds. Pay attention to the resistance at the 2423 level and the support at the 2393 level.
Crude Oil Market Analysis:
Last Friday (July 12), international oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range, with U.S. crude currently trading around $82.25 per barrel. The latest monthly report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) painted a more subdued picture of oil demand growth. The IEA expects global oil demand growth in the second quarter to drop to a 12-month low of 710,000 barrels per day. The agency maintained its forecast for 2024 at 970,000 barrels per day but lowered its 2025 forecast by 50,000 barrels per day to 980,000 barrels per day. The IEA cited several factors contributing to the slowdown in demand growth, including weak economic growth, improved energy efficiency, and the increasing popularity of electric vehicles. In contrast, OPEC’s monthly report maintained its demand growth forecast unchanged. The organization expects global oil demand to increase by 2.25 million barrels per day in 2024 and by 1.85 million barrels per day in 2025. OPEC attributes the resilience of economic growth and the strong rise in summer tourism as the main drivers of fuel consumption. Additionally, OPEC raised its forecast for global economic growth in 2024 from 2.8% to 2.9%, highlighting the growth potential of non-OECD economies.
Today’s Crude Oil Strategy: It is recommended to focus primarily on selling during rebounds and buying during pullbacks. Pay attention to the resistance at the 82.6 level and the support at the 79.6 level.
Caution: Operations should be approached with caution, and the recommendations are for reference only.
