Tuesday (July 16) Market Overview:
Spot Gold Market Analysis: On Tuesday (July 16) during U.S. market trading hours, spot gold surged strongly, currently trading around $2,468.35 per ounce. On Monday, gold prices reached nearly a two-month high of $2,468.62 per ounce, closing at $2,468.11 per ounce, supported by heightened expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September. Traders are awaiting more comments from Fed officials to gauge the timing of the rate cut. According to the CME’s FedWatch tool, the market currently sees a 100% chance of a rate cut in September. The level of $2,439.62 is the highest since May 20, when gold hit a record high of $2,449.89 per ounce. This week’s focus will be on U.S. June retail sales (often referred to as the “scary data,” released on Tuesday), industrial production data, and weekly jobless claims, which could provide more clues on the strength of the U.S. economy. As Powell began speaking, the dollar briefly fell sharply, and spot gold surged to $2,439.79 per ounce before giving back some of the gains. This was Powell’s first speech since the U.S. June Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed cooling inflation. The next Fed monetary policy meeting will be held from July 30 to 31, and the market expects rates to remain unchanged, although bets are increasing that the Fed will cut rates at least twice from September through the end of the year. The market is filled with confidence, with the belief in September rate cuts already evident even before Powell explicitly mentioned it. Powell could have made a stronger case that the U.S. has achieved a soft landing, and now the focus is on avoiding a hard landing, which is the current narrative. This week, investors will closely watch the U.S. June retail sales data released on Tuesday. Retail sales are expected to remain unchanged after a slight increase of 0.1% in May. In addition, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech will also be a focal point for the market.
Today’s Gold Strategy: It is recommended to focus primarily on buying during pullbacks and selling during rebounds. Pay attention to the resistance at the 2492 level and the support at the 2462 level.
Crude Oil Market Analysis: On Tuesday (July 16) during U.S. market trading hours, international oil prices fluctuated narrowly and fell, with U.S. crude currently trading around $80.72 per barrel. Oil prices retreated on Monday as concerns over demand from the largest importer offset the support from U.S. economic news, OPEC supply cuts, and ongoing tensions in the Middle East. OPEC, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, along with its allies including Russia, forms the oil-producing alliance. Brent crude oil futures fell $0.18, or 0.2%, to settle at $84.85 per barrel on Monday; U.S. crude oil futures fell $0.30, or 0.4%, to settle at $81.91 per barrel on Monday. Recently, the crude oil market has experienced volatility, as last week, the IEA forecasted that global oil demand growth would slow as contributions from major Asian countries decline. WTI and Brent crude oil futures prices both fell, ending a four-week winning streak. However, strong U.S. gasoline demand and increased refining activities provided some support to the market, preventing oil prices from falling too much. This week, a series of important economic data and events will provide insights into economic trends and policy outlooks, with oil prices stuck in a high-level consolidation.
Today’s Crude Oil Strategy: It is recommended to focus primarily on selling during rebounds and buying during pullbacks. Pay attention to the resistance at the 81.1 level and the support at the 78.0 level.
Caution: Operations should be approached with caution, and the recommendations are for reference only.
