Gold Market Analysis: July 2, Tuesday, The Federal Reserve’s policy direction has always been a key factor influencing gold prices. If Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterates a data-dependent approach in his speech on Tuesday and hints at a possible policy shift, the market may hold out hope for a rate cut in September. This expectation could weaken the dollar, thereby providing support for gold. However, if Powell’s remarks lean towards a hawkish stance, emphasizing the importance of controlling inflation, the dollar might strengthen, putting pressure on gold. This week, the U.S. will release several key economic data, including the ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS Job Openings, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, ADP Employment Change, and ISM Services PMI. The performance of these data will directly affect the market’s judgment of the U.S. economic situation, and thus, influence gold prices. Particularly, the Non-Farm Payrolls report on Friday, one of the most closely watched economic indicators, will have a significant impact on the gold market.
Today’s Gold Strategy: It is recommended to focus primarily on buying during pullbacks and selling during rebounds. Pay attention to the resistance at the 2347 level and the support at the 2317 level.
Crude Oil Market Analysis: July 2, Tuesday, OPEC Crude Oil Production Remains Stable, Iraq’s Output Still Exceeds Quota: According to a survey, OPEC crude oil production remained stable for the third consecutive month, with some major member countries continuing to exceed their production limits. In June, OPEC member countries’ daily production was 26.98 million barrels, a decrease of 80,000 barrels from the previous month, with slight reductions in Iraq and Nigeria causing the decline. Iraq and the United Arab Emirates have not fully implemented the production cut agreement reached earlier this year with other major member countries, and Iraq has not carried out additional compensatory measures. Iraq reduced its daily production by 30,000 barrels in June to 4.25 million barrels, still about 250,000 barrels above the quota, not accounting for the unfulfilled “compensatory cuts.” Saudi Arabia’s production remained relatively stable at 8.99 million barrels per day, while exports significantly dropped by 9% to 5.61 million barrels per day.
Today’s Crude Oil Strategy: It is recommended to focus primarily on selling during rebounds and buying during pullbacks. Pay attention to the resistance at the 84.4 level and the support at the 81.4 level.
Caution: Operations should be approached with caution, and the recommendations are for reference only.
