Gold Market Analysis: After gold prices hit an all-time high earlier last week, the gold market faced profit-taking pressure this week following the record surge, primarily due to significant profit-taking by short-term futures traders. Gold prices had once climbed to a record high of $2,483.60 per ounce but then dropped more than 2% last Friday, closing at $2,399.27 per ounce. If gold fails to hold above $2,400 at the close, the difficulty of reaching $2,500 in the short term will increase. However, if U.S. economic data underperforms, or if expectations of a Trump victory in the upcoming election strengthen, gold prices might receive further support. Political factors should not be overlooked either. If traders believe that U.S. presidential candidate Trump will win the November election, his inclination towards a weaker dollar could lead him to take actions that would weaken the dollar, thereby affecting the gold market. On the news front, market expectations for a Fed rate cut in September have reached 98%, which has somewhat supported gold prices. Fed Chair Powell’s recent remarks also bolstered market confidence in inflation returning to target. However, if this week’s U.S. GDP data shows an economic slowdown, gold prices may be boosted and could potentially rise back to recent highs. The slight strengthening of the dollar has exerted direct pressure on gold. A rising dollar value tends to weigh on dollar-denominated gold prices. Additionally, the rise in U.S. 10-year Treasury yields has negatively impacted gold prices. In a low-interest-rate environment, gold as a non-yielding asset typically becomes more attractive, but when bond yields rise, investors may turn to the bond market, thereby reducing demand for gold. The impact of fundamental factors on gold prices cannot be ignored. The strengthening dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields have pressured gold prices. Additionally, Fed Chair Powell’s optimistic stance on inflation data and the high market expectations for a Fed rate cut in September have provided some support to gold prices.
Today’s Gold Strategy: It is recommended to focus primarily on buying during pullbacks and selling during rebounds. Pay attention to the resistance at the 2421 level and the support at the 2391 level.
Crude Oil Market Analysis: Last Friday (July 19), although rising Fed rate cut expectations provided support for oil prices, there were still market concerns that an economic slowdown in a major Asian country might suppress demand, and weak U.S. macroeconomic data could indirectly hurt oil demand in the short term. Additionally, technical signals are currently leaning towards a bearish outlook in the short term. The sharp decline in U.S. crude inventories has eased market concerns about the demand outlook; dovish remarks from several Fed officials have reinforced expectations of a Fed rate cut in September, also providing support for oil prices. The dollar, meanwhile, is hovering near a four-month low. Geopolitical tensions remain high, with market expectations for ceasefire negotiations cooling. At the same time, a stronger dollar has dampened demand for dollar-denominated oil from investors holding other currencies. An increase in jobless claims also signals an economic slowdown, which could reduce oil demand. The lack of major stimulus measures from the major Asian country has also disappointed the market. Additionally, concerns about Middle East geopolitical tensions have somewhat eased.
Today’s Crude Oil Strategy: It is recommended to focus primarily on selling during rebounds and buying during pullbacks. Pay attention to the resistance at the 80.1 level and the support at the 77.1 level.
Caution: Operations should be approached with caution, and the recommendations are for reference only.
