Gold Market Analysis: Wednesday, July 3, Although the market’s confidence in Trump winning the election has strengthened, supporting the U.S. dollar and putting pressure on gold prices, the U.S. June ISM Manufacturing PMI data came in weaker than expected and contracted for three consecutive months. This situation leans towards supporting the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September. Geopolitical tensions and uncertainty surrounding the French election also provide safe-haven support for gold. This week, the U.S. will release several key economic data, including the ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS Job Openings, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, ADP Employment Change, and ISM Services PMI. The performance of these data will directly affect the market’s judgment of the U.S. economic situation and, consequently, influence gold prices. Particularly, Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls report, one of the most closely watched economic indicators, will have a significant impact on the gold market.
Today’s Gold Strategy: It is recommended to focus primarily on buying during pullbacks and selling during rebounds. Pay attention to the resistance at the 2344 level and the support at the 2314 level.
Crude Oil Market Analysis: Wednesday, July 3, OPEC has extended its 3.66 million barrels per day production cut plan until the end of 2025. The organization also announced an extension of the 2.2 million barrels per day production cut plan until the end of September 2024. These cuts collectively account for about 5-6% of global oil demand. Nevertheless, the global benchmark Brent crude oil price has still not breached the critical $90 per barrel level, a price last reached in September of the previous year. This indicates that the two main drivers within the OPEC alliance—Saudi Arabia and Russia—are far from achieving the oil price levels needed to balance their budgets. Will they further reduce production? Meanwhile, as the peak demand season in the U.S. approaches, the market expects an increase in demand. The potential for conflict between Israel and Iran also supports oil prices, and the market is preparing for the possible damage Hurricane Beryl could inflict on U.S. refining and offshore production. U.S. manufacturing contracted for the third consecutive month in June, raising expectations for a Fed rate cut in September and further boosting demand expectations.
Today’s Crude Oil Strategy: It is recommended to focus primarily on selling during rebounds and buying during pullbacks. Pay attention to the resistance at the 84.0 level and the support at the 81.0 level.
Caution: Operations should be approached with caution, and the recommendations are for reference only.
