Gold Market Analysis: On Tuesday (July 30), the international gold market entered the new week fluctuating below $2,400. Ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting and the upcoming U.S. data releases, market traders are adjusting their strategies, seeking more clues about the timeline for rate cuts. This article will provide an in-depth analysis of the current fundamental, technical, and news aspects of the gold market, offering pragmatic market interpretations and strategy suggestions for professional traders. Federal Reserve Decision and Non-Farm Payroll Data: The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged when it concludes its two-day meeting on Wednesday but may pave the way for policy easing as early as September by acknowledging that inflation is nearing its 2% target. The market currently expects an 85.8% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut in September and a 13.8% chance of a 50-basis-point cut. While this expectation has already been widely reflected in the market, investors will closely monitor any hints from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell during the press conference to gauge the timing of the rate cut. Additionally, the non-farm payroll report to be released this Friday will be the focus of the market. In recent years, despite inflation being the focal point, as inflation cools and the Federal Reserve emphasizes the labor market, the non-farm payroll data has once again become a significant market driver. A rise in the unemployment rate and an increase in job opportunities, along with the potential triggering of the “Sahm Rule,” could have a significant impact on the market.
Today’s Gold Strategy: It is recommended to focus primarily on buying during pullbacks and selling during rebounds. Pay attention to the resistance at the 2420 level and the support at the 2390 level.
Crude Oil Market Analysis: On Tuesday (July 30), during the U.S. session, international oil prices lingered at low levels, with U.S. crude currently trading around $75.28 per barrel. Oil prices fell nearly 2% to a nearly seven-week low on Monday after Israeli officials indicated they aimed to strike Hezbollah without escalating to a full-scale war, causing oil prices to quickly reverse early Monday’s nearly 1% gains and turn downward. Last weekend, due to technical issues at Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery, the plant is reselling U.S. and Nigerian crude cargoes, leading to a drop in prices. Investors need to monitor changes in market expectations regarding this week’s Federal Reserve decision. The market generally expects the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to keep rates unchanged this week but might acknowledge that inflation has gradually approached the Federal Reserve’s 2% target and may lower rates by 25 basis points at the next meeting in September. The market is betting that the Federal Reserve will set the stage for a rate cut in September during Wednesday’s policy meeting. Forex market analyst Fawad Razaqzada mentioned in a report that “if the Federal Reserve confirms its dovish stance, forecasts may upgrade to possibly three rate cuts by the end of the year.” There is also some positive news for the oil market. On Monday, the U.S. Department of Energy announced that it had finalized contracts to purchase 4.65 million barrels of crude oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), which will be delivered to the Bayou Choctaw storage site in Louisiana in the last three months of this year.
Today’s Crude Oil Strategy: It is recommended to focus primarily on selling during rebounds and buying during pullbacks. Pay attention to the resistance at the 76.6 level and the support at the 73.6 level.
Caution: Operations should be approached with caution, and the recommendations are for reference only.
