Gold Market Analysis: Wednesday, July 3, U.S. Trading Session: During the U.S. trading session, gold prices continued to rise, breaking above the 50-day moving average, which had previously acted as a resistance level. Traders are closely monitoring the release of the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes for insights into the possibility of a rate cut. On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the U.S. is returning to a “disinflationary path.” However, he emphasized that more data is needed to confirm the recent weak inflation figures before considering a rate cut. Powell noted, “We want to be more confident that inflation is moving down to 2% before we start reducing or easing policy.” The market currently believes there is a 67% chance of a rate cut in September, up from about 63% on Monday. This shift in expectations reflects the market’s interpretation of recent economic data and the Federal Reserve’s communication. The short-term outlook for gold remains linked to upcoming economic data and the Fed’s policy expectations. In other words, we are in a news-driven market. If Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls report leads to a shift in rate cut expectations, it could cause “turbulence” in the gold market.
Today’s Gold Strategy: It is recommended to focus primarily on buying during pullbacks and selling during rebounds. Pay attention to the resistance at the 2377 level and the support at the 2347 level.
Crude Oil Market Analysis: Wednesday, July 3, OPEC has extended its 3.66 million barrels per day production cut plan until the end of 2025. The organization also announced an extension of the 2.2 million barrels per day production cut plan until the end of September 2024. These cuts collectively account for about 5-6% of global oil demand. Despite this, the global benchmark Brent crude oil price has still not breached the critical $90 per barrel level, a price last reached in September of the previous year. This indicates that the two main drivers within the OPEC alliance—Saudi Arabia and Russia—are far from achieving the oil price levels needed to balance their budgets.
Today’s Crude Oil Strategy: It is recommended to focus primarily on selling during rebounds and buying during pullbacks. Pay attention to the resistance at the 84.5 level and the support at the 81.5 level.
Caution: Operations should be approached with caution, and the recommendations are for reference only.
