Gold Market Analysis:
The US dollar strengthened last Friday, but due to weak economic data, traders are pricing in a higher likelihood of further rate cuts this year. Investors are also assessing President Trump’s nomination for the Federal Reserve, with the dollar still set to record a weekly decline. From August 4 to August 8, gold prices experienced a roller-coaster week, especially in the past two trading days when reports on gold bar tariffs sparked market panic. Although the White House eventually clarified the report, gold prices remained at levels seen during peak uncertainty, hovering near the $3,400 mark. Last week, gold tested the $3,400 level multiple times. Despite growing Fed rate-cut expectations and Trump nominating a dovish Fed official, the price could not break above this level until Friday, when the gold tariff news pushed it to $3,409 — the highest since July 24. Even after the panic subsided and the tariff report was clarified, both analysts and retail investors remain bullish on gold this week. The market will focus on the Trump-Putin meeting, speeches from several Fed officials on the economic outlook, and the US July YoY unadjusted CPI.
Gold Trading Strategy for Today: Suggest buying on dips as the main approach, with selling on rallies as secondary. Key resistance at 3,390; key support at 3,360.
Crude Oil Market Analysis:
Last Friday during the Asian session, international oil prices showed little movement, but the overall decline last week was significant, as the market worried about the impact of newly implemented US tariffs on the global economy. Brent crude futures fell $0.03 to $66.40 per barrel, with a weekly loss expected to exceed 4%; WTI crude dropped $0.06 to $63.82 per barrel, with a weekly loss likely above 5%. This could mark the longest losing streak since December 2023. Current oil price weakness is mainly driven by both trade-related concerns and OPEC’s policy shifts. While potential US-Russia talks bring some geopolitical relief expectations, the looming slowdown in global economic growth is deeply reshaping market views on energy demand. In this context, oil prices are unlikely to rebound strongly in the short term, and macroeconomic data and policy developments could bring further downside risks.
Crude Oil Trading Strategy for Today: Suggest selling on rallies as the main approach, with buying on dips as secondary. Key resistance at 64.3; key support at 61.3.
Caution advised; for reference only.
