Gold Market Analysis: On August 15 (Beijing time), the U.S. retail sales data for July showed impressive results, causing a series of market fluctuations. The market reacted swiftly, with spot gold dropping $20 in a short span, currently trading at $2451.28 per ounce. The U.S. dollar index surged 60 points, surpassing the 103 level, up 0.50% on the day, reflecting increased market confidence in the dollar. The positive retail sales data and initial jobless claims significantly boosted market sentiment. Analysts from prominent institutions have discussed the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut expectations in depth. Despite the strong retail sales and jobless claims potentially influencing the Fed’s decisions, the market broadly anticipates that the Fed might still cut rates in September, though the debate remains on whether it will be a 25 or 50 basis point cut. This shift in expectations has profoundly impacted market trends. The strong performance of the dollar and the short-term fluctuations in gold and non-U.S. currencies are direct reactions to these expectations. The surge in U.S. Treasury yields has led to shifts in market bets on the Fed’s easing policy. Retail sales data have provided traders with an opportunity to reassess their bets on aggressive Fed actions in September. Swap trades show that traders have reduced their bets on a rate cut at next month’s meeting, now pricing in about 29 basis points, and have also adjusted their expectations for less than 100 basis points of cuts by the Fed in 2024. U.S. retail sales significantly exceeded expectations, with overall sales increasing by 1% month-over-month, marking the strongest performance since January 2023. Although June data was slightly revised down, slightly diminishing the impact, sales excluding autos were actually slightly revised up. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims were below expectations at 227,000, slightly exceeding the previous week’s data, which had led to a sharp rise in the stock market. Philadelphia and New York Fed surveys showed mixed results, but these data points are quite unstable and difficult to interpret seriously. A weak non-farm payroll report next month could still impact the Fed’s actions, but it is hard to justify a 50 basis point rate cut from these data.
Gold Strategy for Today: It is recommended to focus primarily on buying the dips and secondarily on selling the rallies. Watch for resistance at 2472 and support at 2442.
Crude Oil Market Analysis: Supported by easing concerns over a U.S. economic recession and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, oil prices rose for the fifth consecutive trading day on Monday and continued to fluctuate at high levels on Tuesday. Over the past week, strong economic indicators and increased concerns about potential supply disruptions have driven significant gains in both Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices. Oil prices reached highs above $80 per barrel on Monday and Tuesday. Given the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and positive U.S. economic data, the outlook for oil prices remains bullish. However, after a substantial rally and consolidation the previous day, oil prices faced selling pressure and are currently hovering near the key 50-day moving average. Investors are waiting for the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly inventory report and further crude oil data.
Crude Oil Strategy for Today: It is advised to focus mainly on selling the rallies and secondarily on buying the dips. Watch for resistance at 78.2 and support at 75.2.
Note: Please exercise caution in your operations; these suggestions are for reference only.
