Gold Market Analysis: On Tuesday (August 5), U.S. session spot gold broke away from the high-level consolidation around 3390 and is now trading near $3,380.79/oz. Gold prices extended last Friday’s gains on Monday (August 4) due to weak U.S. economic data, rising expectations for Fed rate cuts, and escalating global trade tensions. The U.S. dollar, affected by weak jobs data, the resignation of a Fed governor, and President Trump’s dismissal of the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, failed to maintain its rebound momentum, rising only 0.06% to 98.73, reflecting concerns about the U.S. economic outlook. Recently, President Trump announced a new round of tariffs on dozens of countries, explicitly stating they will remain in place, notably a 25% tariff on Indian goods. This decision is linked to India’s large-scale purchases of Russian oil. Trump criticized India for reselling Russian oil for huge profits while ignoring moral considerations regarding the Ukraine conflict. India responded that its energy imports aim to maintain domestic economic stability and accused the U.S. of having “no legitimate basis” for its actions. This tit-for-tat trade dispute has heightened global market tensions, boosting demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. With Fed rate cut expectations, geopolitical risks, and a weaker dollar all in play, gold retains strong short-term bullish momentum.
Gold Strategy for Today: Focus on buying on pullbacks as the main strategy and selling on rebounds as a secondary approach. Resistance to watch: 3390; support to watch: 3360.
Crude Oil Market Analysis: International oil prices were little changed on Tuesday after three consecutive days of declines due to rising oversupply concerns. Brent crude futures held steady at $68.76/bbl, while U.S. WTI crude edged down to $66.27. In the previous session, both benchmarks fell more than 1%, hitting a one-week low. The core reason for the pullback is OPEC’s announcement to increase crude oil output by 547,000 bpd starting in September—marking the third consecutive acceleration of production hikes since the start of the year. OPEC, which controls about half of the world’s oil supply, has been curbing output since 2020 to support prices but is now gradually lifting restrictions to reclaim market share. Oil prices are now caught in a tug-of-war between supply and demand expectations—OPEC’s production hike could pressure prices lower, while U.S. geopolitical moves and trade policy uncertainties may limit some supply or disrupt global energy flows. September is shaping up to be a key turning point for the oil market.
Crude Oil Strategy for Today: Focus on selling on rebounds as the main strategy and buying on pullbacks as a secondary approach. Resistance to watch: 66.3; support to watch: 63.3.
Operate cautiously; strategies are for reference only.
