Gold Market Analysis:
On Monday, September 9, following the non-farm payroll data, expectations for a 50-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September cooled, leading the U.S. dollar index to rebound after dipping, which in turn pushed gold prices below the $2500 level. Short-term bearish signals for gold have strengthened. U.S. Treasury yields have also rebounded, posing further downside risk to gold prices. However, geopolitical tensions and the possibility of rate cuts could still limit any major breakout in gold’s current market.
Technically, on the daily chart, gold remains in a wide range of fluctuations, with key resistance still at the historical high of $2,532 and strong support at last week’s low of $2,473. From a technical indicator perspective, the short-term outlook appears unfavorable for gold bulls, with signs of a potential bearish divergence. If the lower boundary of the range at $2,473 is breached, it could signal the start of a deeper correction. Conversely, only a breakout above the $2,532 record high would signal a potential push toward new highs.
Gold Strategy for Today: It is recommended to focus on buying on dips and selling on rebounds. Watch for resistance around the $2517 level and support at the $2487 level.
Crude Oil Market Analysis:
On Monday, September 9, during the U.S. trading session, international oil prices saw a slight rebound, with U.S. crude currently trading around $68.74 per barrel. Oil prices closed nearly 2% lower last Friday following weaker-than-expected U.S. August employment data, which overshadowed the price support from OPEC producers delaying supply increases. Brent crude futures fell by $1.63 or 2.24% last Friday to $71.06 per barrel, the lowest since December 2021. U.S. crude futures dropped by $1.48 or 2.14% to $67.67 per barrel, marking the lowest level since June 2023.
Last week, Brent crude futures dropped by approximately 7.24%, and U.S. crude futures fell by around 7.45%. U.S. government data showed that the increase in jobs in August was below expectations, but the unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, indicating an orderly slowdown in the labor market, suggesting that the Federal Reserve may not need to implement a large rate cut this month.
This week will feature OPEC’s monthly oil market report, the EIA’s short-term energy outlook, and the IEA’s monthly oil market report, which investors should closely monitor. Additionally, the European Central Bank’s rate decision and key data from the world’s two largest economies will steer this week’s market risks.
Crude Oil Strategy for Today: It is recommended to focus on selling on rebounds and buying on dips. Watch for resistance at the $69.5 level and support at the $66.5 level.
Caution is advised, and the strategies are for reference only.
