Analysis of gold news: On Friday (September 8), spot gold closed at US$1,918.65, down US$21.15 or 1.09% last week, with the highest hitting US$1,946.36 per ounce and the lowest hitting US$1,815.23 per ounce. After opening lower last week, gold prices are holding steady above the key 200-day simple moving average (SMA), which sits just below $1,920. If this support holds ahead of this week’s much-anticipated U.S. inflation data for August, investors may be hesitant to bet on further weakness in gold. With the release of macroeconomic data from the United States showing a lack of progress in inflation and relatively healthy economic activity, investors are beginning to reassess the possibility of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates again before the end of the year. As a result, U.S. Treasury yields moved higher and the U.S. dollar continued to be supported by demand, forcing gold to be on the back foot in the first half of last week. The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for August released on Wednesday will be the focus next week. CPI is expected to rise 0.5% month-on-month in August, while core CPI is expected to rise 0.2% month-on-month. Markets don’t expect the Fed to raise policy rates in September, and inflation data is unlikely to change that view. However, investors still see a near 40% chance that the Fed will raise rates again before the end of the year, in November or December, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. The market’s immediate reaction to the CPI data may be simple. A stronger-than-expected monthly data could boost hawkish bets on the Fed and put pressure on gold, while weaker data could have the opposite effect on gold’s moves and help it rebound.
Today’s gold strategy: It is recommended to focus on low and long callbacks, supplemented by rebounds from high altitudes. Focus on the first-line resistance of 1934 at the top and the first-line support of 1912 at the bottom.
Crude oil news analysis: In the US market last Friday (September 8), the international US crude oil price was trading around US$87.30 per barrel. This year, as OPEC’s efforts to tighten the market encountered concerns about global economic growth, a A series of bullish and bearish factors are vying for dominance in the oil market. Oil prices had been trading in a relatively narrow range of $70-$80/barrel for much of the first half of the year until additional Saudi production cuts on top of OPEC’s cuts boosted sentiment and sentiment in July and August. This has pushed up oil prices, however, they have not surged due to continued concerns about economic growth in the world’s two largest economies, the United States and Asian giants, as well as economic growth in Europe, which is already weak and barely growing. Some analysts pointed out that uncertainty prevails and continues to keep oil prices in a narrow range, which ironically leads to relative stability in oil prices. Indeed, the latest announcement to extend production cuts has pushed oil prices higher. But oil prices have only risen to a trading range of US$85/barrel to US$90/barrel, and analysts are not eager to predict that oil prices will reach US$100 in the near future. This is because the global economy and oil demand growth face huge uncertainties. OPEC’s production cuts have nervous markets, especially for crude oil, as Middle Eastern exporters, the largest producers of crude oil, have delayed some shipments. For example, Saudi crude oil exports in August are estimated to have fallen to their lowest level since March 2021, as the kingdom continues to cut 1 million barrels per day to keep the market tight and push oil prices higher. Markets tightened and newly announced production cuts through the end of the year are likely to exacerbate shortages in the fourth quarter, supporting oil prices.
Today’s crude oil strategy: It is recommended to focus on rebounding from high altitudes, supplemented by low and long corrections. Focus on the first-line resistance of 87.5 at the top and the first-line support of 85.5 at the bottom.
The execution of gold and crude oil trading has to be done carefully, the above strategies are recommended only for reference.
