Gold Market Analysis:
On Wednesday, September 11, the U.S. August CPI data was released, triggering a strong market reaction. The year-on-year unadjusted CPI for August was 2.5%, slightly below the expected 2.6%, but the core CPI remained steady at 3.2%, consistent with previous data. Housing costs continued to be a key driver, particularly with the housing index rising 0.5%, showing that inflationary pressure in this area has not eased significantly. While overall inflation slowed, the core CPI’s monthly rate exceeding expectations at 0.3% introduced new uncertainties, especially with the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting next week.
In the short term, the CPI data brought fresh market volatility, and the U.S. dollar’s strength is expected to continue. This volatility is closely tied to the market’s revised expectations regarding the Fed’s policy. As a safe-haven asset, gold has faced dual pressure from the strengthening U.S. dollar and diminished risk-averse sentiment following higher-than-expected inflation data. With expectations of a smaller rate cut, gold prices may maintain a range-bound pattern in the near term. While risk-aversion demand could resurface amid increasing market risks, the impact of the stronger dollar on gold cannot be overlooked. COMEX futures also reflect investor caution on gold’s medium- to long-term trajectory, suggesting limited short-term upside potential. The $2500 per ounce support level could be tested again.
Investors should closely watch the Fed meeting results and subsequent market reactions, especially in light of the higher-than-expected inflation data, as gold could face further volatility. Overall, the CPI data prompted a swift and clear market response—stronger U.S. dollar and pressure on gold—shifting attention to the Fed’s upcoming policy meeting. While a small rate cut is still expected, the persistence of core inflation adds uncertainty to the Fed’s policy path.
Gold Strategy for Today: It is recommended to focus on buying on dips and selling on rebounds. Watch for resistance at the $2528 level and support at the $2498 level.
Crude Oil Market Analysis:
On Wednesday, oil prices continued to fluctuate near recent lows, reflecting the market’s complex reaction to weakening global demand and supply disruptions. OPEC’s decision to extend production cuts until the end of 2024 provided some support, though the alliance plans to increase supply in 2025. In the short term, weak oil demand and concerns over an economic slowdown have further fueled bearish sentiment in the market. Oil prices have already dropped to their lowest levels since April 2023, suggesting that the path for oil remains more likely to decline than rise.
Crude Oil Strategy for Today: It is recommended to focus on selling on rebounds and buying on dips. Watch for resistance at the $68.3 level and support at the $65.3 level.
Caution is advised, and the strategies are for reference only.
