Gold Market Analysis:
Last week, gold opened slightly above $2514 per ounce and rose to $2525 per ounce during the European trading session on Monday. After the North American market opened, gold prices fell to $2512 per ounce, and by Tuesday’s early session, it dropped to a weekly low of $2505 per ounce. However, bullish momentum in the North American session pushed gold prices above the weekly high of $2525 per ounce. With the release of the U.S. second-quarter GDP second estimate and weekly unemployment claims report, gold prices fell again to $2505 per ounce. Last Friday, following the release of the U.S. July PCE price index report, gold prices dropped to a new weekly low of $2494.21 per ounce. After a volatile week, gold stabilized, fluctuating above $2500 per ounce. According to a weekly gold survey, retail investors’ bullish sentiment towards gold weakened, while industry experts’ opinions were mixed. This week, market participants will focus on employment data, particularly Friday’s U.S. non-farm payroll report. If the non-farm employment report is weak, experts believe the Federal Reserve may increase the expected September rate cut from 25 basis points to 50 basis points. Whether the Fed will implement a larger rate cut depends on the unemployment rate. Last week, after a turbulent summer, the gold market showed relatively stable trading. Analysts and retail investors are divided on the future direction of gold prices, but they generally agree that the Fed’s monetary policy will be a key factor influencing gold. This week, the market will closely watch employment data for clues about the Fed’s next move.
Gold Strategy for Today: It is recommended to focus on buying on dips and selling on rebounds. Watch for resistance at the 2511 level and support at the 2481 level.
Crude Oil Market Analysis:
Last Friday (August 30), although U.S. economic data boosted optimism about U.S. demand, the market remained concerned about the global demand outlook due to weakened expectations for a major Asian country’s demand. The worsening Russia-Ukraine conflict supported oil prices, but ceasefire negotiations in the Middle East reduced concerns about supply disruptions, which could weigh on oil prices. On the technical daily chart, moving averages are intertwined, indicating short-term volatility. Looking ahead, Brent crude oil prices may remain under pressure, with market focus likely shifting to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s September meeting, where interest rate decisions could have a significant impact on oil prices. Although U.S. economic data provided some support, the overall outlook remains pessimistic, as economic slowdowns in parts of the world and increased Libyan supply continue to exert downward pressure on the market. Expectations for the Fed to cut rates by 50 basis points in September have increased, which could improve the outlook for oil demand. The U.S. dollar index has also been weakening recently, providing support for oil prices. After finding support near a strong six-month low, oil prices rebounded, showing signs of a bottom on the technical chart, with short-term potential for further gains.
Crude Oil Strategy for Today: It is recommended to focus on selling on rebounds and buying on dips. Watch for resistance at the 74.0 level and support at the 71.0 level.
Caution is advised, and the strategies are for reference only.
