Analysis of gold news: International gold prices fell in the U.S. market on Monday (May 13), falling from the two-week high hit the previous trading day, as investors adjusted their positions in response to a key U.S. inflation report, which may reveal information from the Federal Reserve The timing of the first interest rate cut. After rising sharply in the first two trading days, spot gold has fallen back from its highs and is currently retreating to around US$2,331, with an intraday decline of around US$30. This week, the attention of global financial markets is focused on the United States, especially the upcoming Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI). These data not only reflect the inflation status of the U.S. economy, but also have a decisive influence on the direction of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. The market generally expects that the year-on-year growth rate of core CPI in April will decline. If the forecast comes true, it may alleviate market concerns about inflation and provide support for safe-haven assets such as gold. Under the current complex economic and political background, the trend of the gold market is full of uncertainties. Investors need to pay close attention to U.S. economic data, especially PPI and CPI, as well as speeches from Federal Reserve officials. In addition, economic data from the Eurozone and developments in other important global economies will also have an impact on the gold market. In this environment, gold, as a traditional safe-haven asset, still has significant value and investment appeal. Investors should remain cautious and pay close attention to market dynamics to make informed investment decisions. According to CME’s FedWatch tool, the market is currently betting that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in September, with the number of rate cuts this year being two. This expectation, if supported by economic data, could put pressure on the dollar and boost gold prices. In addition to the United States, first-quarter GDP and employment data from the Eurozone will also be released. A Bloomberg survey shows that the euro zone economy may grow faster than expected, which may have an impact on global markets, including the gold market. Speeches by Fed officials have always been an important window for the market to analyze the Fed’s policy trends. This week, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will speak, and his comments may provide markets with clues about future monetary policy.
Today’s gold strategy: It is recommended to focus on low and long callbacks, supplemented by rebounds from high altitudes. Focus on the first-line resistance of 2353 at the top and the first-line support of 2323 at the bottom.
Analysis of crude oil news: In the U.S. market on Monday (May 13), crude oil bottomed out and hit a maximum of $79.5/barrel, and is currently trading at $79/barrel. Holding off on rate cuts could slow U.S. economic growth and dampen fuel demand amid signs of softening fuel demand and comments from Federal Reserve officials that dampened hopes for a rate cut. As of 09:30, Brent crude oil futures are currently down 0.63% to US$82.27 per barrel; US West Texas Intermediate oil futures are down 0.59% to US$77.80 per barrel. Both oils are currently close to the support of the nearly two-month low set last week, with Brent oil supporting around 81.71 and US oil supporting around 76.89. Both benchmark crude oil futures ended about $1 lower on Friday, as Federal Reserve officials expressed their opinions on whether U.S. interest rates are high enough to bring inflation back to 2%. Last week, Brent crude fell 0.2%, while U.S. crude rose 0.2%, with analysts expecting the Federal Reserve to keep policy rates at current levels for longer, which supported the dollar. A stronger dollar makes dollar-denominated oil more expensive for investors holding other currencies. Although data from energy services company Baker Hughes showed that the number of active drilling rigs in the United States fell by three last week to 496, the lowest since November, it is expected to limit the fall in oil prices. In addition, the ECB’s April meeting minutes showed that euro zone inflation is expected to fall back to 2% next year, so ECB policymakers concluded last month that they will likely cut interest rates in June. This is also expected to provide some support to oil prices. In addition, investors also need to pay attention to news related to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, which currently tends to support oil prices.
Crude oil strategy today: It is recommended to focus on rebounding high, supplemented by callbacks low and long. Focus on the 80.2 first-line resistance at the top and the 77.2 first-line support at the bottom.
Caution is required in operation and suggestions are provided for reference.
