Analysis of gold news: Last Friday (September 1), under the influence of the non-agricultural employment report released by the United States, the ISM manufacturing index, and the speeches of hawkish officials from the Federal Reserve, the financial market experienced short-term volatility. The Labor Department reported that the U.S. added 187,000 jobs in August, beating economists’ expectations for 170,000, but job growth slowed slightly, with the unemployment rate rising to 3.8% from 3.5% in July . This rise in unemployment is likely to be welcomed by the Fed. The subsequent release of the ISM manufacturing index showed contraction for the 10th consecutive month, but also showed some signs of recovery. Federal Reserve official Loretta Mester said on Friday that despite signs that the U.S. labor market is gradually improving, the market remains strong. She also noted that future rate decisions will depend on incoming data. Under the influence of this news, the U.S. dollar index experienced a V-shaped reversal of a sharp decline and a quick rebound, while the three major U.S. stock indexes rose across the board. At the same time, spot gold prices rose first and then fell. The dimming prospects for a rate hike this week and a subsequent drop in U.S. Treasury yields weighed on the dollar, which was on track to snap a six-week winning streak. Despite a surge in bond yields in August, MSCI’s index of all-country stocks rose 0.2%, bringing its gain to more than 13% for the year. The U.S. economy is very resilient and continues to push back the possibility of a recession. This means that the soft landing scenario is gaining traction and there is less risk that the Fed will have to do too much. That’s one of the reasons why the market is doing so well. As the overall economy moves toward a soft landing, the job market continues to show signs of moderation, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates steady at its September meeting. As U.S. economic data continues to be strong and the Federal Reserve provides clearer guidance on the path of future policy, investors may find opportunities to seek excess returns in equities and fixed income.
Today’s gold strategy: It is recommended to focus on low and long callbacks, supplemented by rebounds from high altitudes. At the top, focus on the first-line resistance of 1953, and on the bottom, focus on the first-line support of 1930.
Analysis of crude oil news: In the U.S. market last Friday (September 1), U.S. crude oil continued to rise and was trading around $85.17 per barrel. Therefore, previous API data showed that U.S. crude oil inventories dropped by nearly 11.5 million barrels last week. , much higher than market expectations. In addition, overnight data showed that the U.S. job market was slowing down, market expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates have cooled, and the possibility of a “soft landing” for the U.S. economy has increased. U.S. stocks rose overnight, which also provided confidence to crude oil bulls. The latest China manufacturing PMI data for August was slightly better than market expectations, which has cooled the market’s concerns about demand. In addition, U.S. data this week suppressed expectations of further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. In view of the continued decline in crude oil inventories, the average price The consensus may seem rather conservative. After all, the global oil market remains tight, with global inventories estimated to have fallen by 2.8 million barrels per day in August and a further decline of 2.4 million barrels per day expected next month. Experts predict that tighter inventories will remain the main price driver in the coming months, but they warn that the market could still slip back into the kind of macro-driven anxiety seen in the second quarter. Saudi Arabia may extend its voluntary output cut of 1 million barrels of oil through October for a third month in a row amid supply uncertainty, a group of analysts predicted. Short-term oil prices still have further opportunities to rise.
Crude oil today’s strategy: It is recommended to focus on rebounding from high altitudes, supplemented by callbacks from lows and multiples. Focus on the first-line resistance at 83.7 at the top and first-line support at 86.5 at the bottom.
Operation needs to be cautious, it is recommended only for reference.
