Analysis of gold news: After the data was released on Tuesday (November 14), the U.S. dollar index fell short-term. In addition, the price of gold also rose rapidly, once approaching US$1,970 per ounce and reaching an intraday high of US$1,970.85 per ounce. The release of consumer price index (CPI) data triggered volatility in financial markets. After the data was released, the U.S. dollar index fell short-term, while non-U.S. currencies collectively rose. In addition, gold prices also rose. Although investors had been largely betting that the Fed would not raise interest rates in December, inflation remains significantly above the Fed’s 2% target. However, with the release of CPI data, investors’ views on the Fed have changed. “I think the slowdown gives us a better sense of how much more we need to do if we need to take more action,” Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said at a meeting earlier this month, suggesting the Fed may take More measures to control inflation. Agency comments on U.S. CPI data: Housing inflation continues to rise, offsetting the decline in energy inflation in October. Agency comments on U.S. CPI data: Ironically, the more financial markets rise on hopes that the Federal Reserve will complete interest rate hikes, the more the market will undermine the Federal Reserve’s efforts to slow economic growth and reduce inflation. Agency comments on U.S. CPI data: The core CPI annual rate has been the smallest since September 2021, indicating that although there is still some distance from the Fed’s goal, at least some gradual progress has been made. Core inflation rose 4% year-on-year, the smallest increase since September 2021.
Today’s gold strategy: It is recommended to focus on low and long callbacks, supplemented by rebounds from high altitudes. At the top, focus on the first-line resistance of 1975, and on the bottom, focus on the first-line support of 1950.
Analysis of crude oil news: In the US market on Tuesday (November 14), crude oil prices were trading around US$78.30 per barrel. After falling for three consecutive weeks, crude oil prices rebounded. Traders are waiting for this week’s industry report to confirm the recent whether the decline is excessive. Analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc said resurgent demand concerns drove the sell-off, but consumption remained strong throughout the year and could continue that momentum in 2024. Goldman Sachs also lowered its price forecast for next year to $92/barrel. OPEC’s monthly report said “over-exaggerated negative sentiment” has led to lower prices, but recent data points to healthy fundamentals and strong global economic growth. The IEA will report on Tuesday, and two EIA inventory data will be released later this week. Crude oil The week has started back on the defensive, but so far both Brent and WTI have held above key support levels, potentially signaling that the worst of the long-term unwinding is over. Oil prices rose more than 1% on Monday after OPEC’s monthly market The report eased concerns about weakening demand and a U.S. investigation into alleged violations of Russian oil sanctions raised concerns about potential supply disruptions. OPEC’s monthly oil market report appeared to push back on demand concerns, citing excessive negativity surrounding demand from the Asian giant, while raising its forecast for demand growth this year and leaving its forecast for next year unchanged. He believes that oil prices may have bottomed out after falling about 4% last week and recording three consecutive weeks of declines for the first time since May. “Given the weakness in oil prices over the past few weeks, Saudi Arabia and Russia are likely to continue voluntary supply cuts next year. Therefore, this should limit the downside potential.
Today’s crude oil strategy: It is recommended to focus on the rebound to high altitudes, supplemented by the callback to lows and longs. Focus on the first-line resistance of 79.7 at the top and the first-line support of 77.0 at the bottom.
The operation for gold and crude oil trading must be done carefully, the above strategies are recommended only for reference.
